Aug. 11, 2020
Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks before closing.
July is in the books, and as we head for mid-August, parents and kids are getting ready to go back to some version of school. Right now, those kids are enjoying summer fun on beaches they most likely have to themselves.
There were 84 homes sold in July. If we look back through January, 84 sales are about our "normal" monthly average. May was an outlier. That's pretty impressive give low inventory, especially at the median price point where we have less than 2 months' worth of homes for sale.
The other thing that makes it impressive is that a lot of would-be Maui home buyers are unemployed and can't qualify for a loan. We talked to a waiter at Pacific'O last night, they were open for a one-night only event, and the waiter mentioned that he had been in line to purchase a new condo here in Lahaina. However, when he got laid off, that was the end of that dream.
Condo sales have recovered a bit since May, but they are nowhere near pre-COVID levels. Sales of residential or long-term condos have been pretty even with the short term rental/condo-tel units.
Pending sales represent properties that are under contract but have not yet closed. Pendings are the pipeline that tells us how many sales are likely to happen in the next couple of months.
Pending sales are also showing some signs of life. The 472 total pendings are the highest number of new contracts in a given month since our quarantine started. New contracts on single family homes have been rising since April and seem to be leveling off a bit. It's the lack of inventory.
With condos, it's not the inventory. According to people I'm talking to on the mainland, agents on our team, and other realtors, there is pent up demand building. We have clients who had booked flights for July, then rebooked them for August and are now optimistic about September. When travel to Maui reopens it will be interesting to see if pendings get a big bump.
Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category. The supply of single family homes has fallen every single month this year. With just 4 and 1/2 months of home supply overall and less than 2 months' supply at the median price point, home values will continue to rise.
Condo inventory has been climbing steadily since January. That makes sense in any market since winter is our "busy" selling season, and the general wisdom is that sales usually tail off in the spring going into summer. With sales declining and new condos coming on the market we would expect to see a rise in inventory. And, according to stats from Realtors Association of Maui, which just came out, we have just slightly over 6 months of condo supply. That is the definition of a balanced market. If you are wondering, we pull our numbers on the first of the month, so we'll always have some small differences.
Selling Prices: Average and median sold prices
We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low priced sales.
The average selling price of single family homes pushed back up over the one million dollar mark again. I don't really see a trend, but clearly there are buyers at higher price points that help pull up the average.
The median price point appears to fluctuate a fair amount. However,e if we look at the median selling prices for the last 12 months and average them out, $770,000 is right on the mid-point. However, given the lack of inventory and rock bottom interest rates, I won't be surprised if home values continue to rise.
The average selling price for condos, at almost $757,000, is still very strong. In most months last year, the average was in the $600's and dropped as low as $603 last July. The median selling price in July was up by a whisker over June. Based on the weekly numbers that we track it appears that the median is trending down. But, before anyone freaks out, this July's median is up 6% over the median in 2019.
Days on Market: (avg-sold listings)
The days on market (DOM) is the number of days a property has been on the market until close of escrow. I keep looking for this trend to change, and while it appears to be up for homes, comparing it to the 12-month trend there really hasn't been much change. The days on market for condos is also pretty "normal" and maybe even down just a fraction.
That's it for our 98th issue of Maui Real Estate Advisor. Every issue can be found at MauiRealEstateAdvisor.tv and you can get our weekly updates at MauiRealEstateMarketReport.com.
Get more information and details
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About Aloha Group Maui
Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR R(B), and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals: Angie Liu R(S), Beau Dyer R(B), Cheri Miller R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Paul Goodman R(B), Suni Novotny R(S), Myra Plant R(S), and Tony Brown R(B). We are business people, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business. We are in business for pleasure and profit. We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own on Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit). Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed. So fi you are buying property on Maui, it is a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.
Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization. Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.
Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back with both Steve's were there (Job and Woz). She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.
Lee, Barbara and the team are licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.