In September, home sales took a tumble with only 57 sales. That was one of the slowest months for home sales on Maui ever. Was that the beginning of a steep downward turn? 

No.

October came back with 77 sales. That's up 35% over the previous month. So, while we don't see a steep downward trend in home sales, we have to recognize that there has been a steady, slow decline in the number of sales since hitting this year's high number at 106 sale in April. 

For some context, it might also be worth mentioning that in November of 2019, there were 71 home sales. So, 77 sales in any one month is not abnormal.

Moving on to condo sales, there were 7 fewer condos sold in October than in September. After the sharp drop in the number of condo sales in July, the number of sales has fluctuated slightly up and down. However, my sense from talking to Maui property owners and would-be buyers is that the demand for Maui condos is strong. The low sales number in this case is more about supply than demand. 

INVENTORY:

Despite everything else that is going on in this economy, inventory, i.e. supply, is still calling the shots on real estate on Maui. In the table above you can see that inventory has increased from May by just over 25%. What you can't see is that we started the year with only 177 homes for sale. That's an inventory gain of 45% for the year. That's a huge increase in inventory. Even with that, we have only 3.3 months' worth of homes for sale. By definition, it's still a sellers' market.

The number of condos for sale inched up from January through May and then spiked up in June and July. Which was, maybe not coincidentally, when the number of condo sales sank significantly. 

One might think the simultaneous spike in supply and dip in demand would bring some balance to the market. One would be wrong. Despite a 17% increase in the number of condos for sale, there is still less than 2 months of inventory for sale on Maui. It is clearly still a sellers' market. 

SELLING PRICES: average and median sold prices

The selling prices of home in October seemed to support the idea of it still being a sellers' market. The average selling price for a home peaked at $2,255,363 back in May, signaling a shift in Maui's high end luxury market. The result was a dip of over $700,000 with both August and September going below $1,500,000. However, in October we saw the average selling price top $1,800,000 which might indicated the luxury market still has some steam left in it.

The median selling price also got a small lift, up just 4% over the previous month. But any asset you own that rises 4% in a month is not too bad.

Condo prices didn't fare as well as home prices. The average selling price for a condo dropped below $900,000 for the first time since March of 2021. However, Maui's high end condos, the sales of which would increase the average selling price, are also in short supply, so we should take the decline with a grain of salt.

The median selling price of a condo increased $2,500, which is less than .5%. That's nothing, but the trend over the last 12 months has been on the rise. The median selling price in October of 2021 was $672,500, and in October of 2020, when we were just starting to get a bounce back from the COVID shutdown, the median condo price was $581, 160.

PENDING SALES:

Despite solid sales results, we are bound to see a decline, perhaps a significant decline in overall sales over the next 2 - 3 months. This has nothing to do with demand, the culprit is inventory, and you don't need a crystal ball to see writing on the wall. It's written in the number of pending sales.

The number of homes and condos under contract scheduled to close between now and the next couple of months or so, has dropped below 400 for the first time since June of 2020. Which, in case you don't remember, was a pretty tough time economically and otherwise for a lot of folks here on quarantined Maui.

Later that same year sales began to return to "normal" levels. By early 2021, the market was catching fire and, in March, pending topped to 900 homes and condos for just a few days.

Historically, pending sales of homes and condos together have been in the high 400's and even up into the 600's. With low inventory and pending dropping into the 300's, while there may be debate as to whether or not the national economy is in a recession, for those working in real estate, directly or indirectly, the recession is on.

_________________

In context, give the state of the economy with what has happened to interest rates, the stock market, our national politics, and the world situation, Maui real estate is solid. By comparison to most other measures - rock solid. 

Get more information and details

To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com.  If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you.  As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.

______________________________________

About Aloha Group Maui

Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), Heather Zidell, R(S) and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business.  We are in business for pleasure and profit.  We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit).  Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed.  So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.

Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization.  Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.  

Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz).  She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.

Copyright 2022 L. Lee Potts

Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc.  While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed.  This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes.  Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.  

Aina Nalu News

Presented by Aloha Group Maui

Issue 68, Q3 - 2022

Aloha from your resident experts!

This second quarter brought the end of summer and the start of a new school year and with it, a bit of a quieter island. This quarter also brought the first whale of the season! Experts say it's early, but not too early, so we'll take it. There haven't been any spotted since, but we're hoping the whale inventory will be higher than what the real estate inventory is looking like for the next quarter.

Of the 4 units sold in this quarter, 2 were sold before listed, and 2 were sold at a record price. There are currently no units active or pending.

Here is a comparison of what happened in Q3 2021 vs. Q3 2022:

Unit sold in this same quarter in 2021 ranged from $565,000 to $680,500. Two of these units were 2 bed, 2 bath units, two upstairs, downstairs, and they sold for $640,000 and $690,500. That is a price difference of up to $210,000 in just one year!

There hasn't been a unit listed in Aina Nalu since July 1 (the two listed on 8/29 were already sold before listed) and we're seeing low inventory all over the island, not just Aina Nalu. It continues to be a seller's market; there are less than 2 months of condos for sale currently on Maui. Prices are still appreciating, but at a much slower rate. 

From July 1 to September 30 there were 4 listings and 4 closed sales. There were 0 cancelled listings, and 0 expired listings at the end of the quarter. There were 0 active listings and 0 pending sales at the end of the quarter.

For more details on current Maui real estate prices and sales, go to the Maui Real Estate Advisor for all the stats. 

The talk of a housing bubble in the coming year seems to be at a fever pitch as rising mortgage rates continue to slow down an overheated real estate market. Over the past two years, home prices have appreciated at an unsustainable pace causing many to ask: are things just slowing down, or is a crash coming?

To answer this question, there are two things we want to understand. The first is the reality of the shift in today's housing market. And the second is what experts are saying about home prices in the coming year.

The Reality of the Shift in Today's Housing Market

The reality is we're seeing an inflection point in housing supply and demand. According to realtor.com, active listings have increased more than 26% over last year, while showings from the latest ShowingTime Showing Index have decreased almost 17% from last year (see graph below). This is an inflection point for housing because, over the past two years, we've seen a massive amount of demand (showings) and not enough homes available for sale for the number of people that wanted to buy. That caused the market frenzy.

Today, supply and demand look very different, and the market is slowing down from the pace we've seen. This offers proof of the sudden slowdown so many people are feeling.

What Experts Are Saying About Home Prices in the Coming Year

Right now, most experts are forecasting home price appreciation in 2023, but at a much slower pace than the last two years. The average of the six forecasters below is for national home prices to appreciate by 2.5% in the coming year. Only one of the six is calling for home price depreciation.

When we look at the shift taking place along with what experts are saying, we can conclude the national real estate market is slowing down but is not a bubble getting ready to burst. This isn't to say that a few overheated markets won't experience home price depreciation, but there isn't a case to be made for a national housing bubble.

Bottom Line

The real estate market is slowing down, and that's causing many to fear we're in a housing bubble. What we've experienced in the housing market over the past two years were historic levels of demand and constrained supply. That led to homes going up in value at a record pace. While some overheated markets may experience price depreciation in the short term, according to experts, the national real estate market will appreciate in the coming year.

Keeping Current Matters

Is the real estate market returning to normal? We'll fill you in on that and more, but first the other news in Hawaii and on Maui specifically is...

Sports - Hawaii wins the Little League World Series. Film at 11.

Cuisine - The first Chick-fil-A opened on Maui. The blessing was held on September 1 and they are donating $25,000 to the Maui Food Bank. The notice in The Maui News said the owners will be supporting other charity events and giving back to the community.

Visitors - The first humpback whale of the year was spotted in South Maui last week! It is pretty early, so there may not be another spotting for another month or so, but it marks the start of our favorite season.

Now, what is happening in this crazy real estate market? 

SALES:

It seems the press has all but pronounced the real estate market as dead. That is certainly not the case on Maui for single family homes. Although the sales trend since March is clearly moving in a downward direction, it's not dying, it's just getting back to normal.

Normal! How can you say that?!?

A little recent history is useful. I think most of you will agree that 2019 was the last "normal" year we had. Throughout the first 8 months of 2019 there were 708 homes sold. Throughout the first 8 months of 2022 there have been 743 homes sold. There have been 5% more homes sold during a time when interest rates more than doubled, and we have 66% less inventory, and prices are much higher than in the normal times. Also, the average number of sales per month for the first 8 months of 2019 was 88.5. Look at the average number of sales for the last 3 months of this year. It looks like home sales are on the path to normal.

Condo sales in 2022 are also up over the norm for 2019, however, the number of sales per month for this year dropped significantly, like a proverbial rock, in July. It is difficult to see how condo sales can keep a normal pace of about 130 sales per month when inventory is about half of what it was in 2019 and prices have risen a whopping 65%.

INVENTORY: 

Make no mistake, it is still a sellers' market. Inventory hit bottom in November of 2021 when there were just 163 homes for sale on Maui. In April of this year there were just 165 homes for sale. In August, the number of homes for sale was up 100 homes over that low inventory mark. Yeah!

Well, maybe not "yeah!" In August of 2019, the normal year, there were 459 homes for sale. That was also a sellers' market because the inventory during that time was 4.5 months. A balanced market is 6 months of inventory. We are back up to 3 months of inventory on Maui.

And just for fun, during August of 2008, when the real estate market and everything else crashed, the number of homes for sale was 1,176. What a time!

For condos it is also a sellers' market. Even with inventories up over the last 3 months we still have less than 2 months of condos for sale. Just to give you an idea how different the market is today, in August of 2019, when there were 156 condos sold, there were 459 for sale. Even then, there was just 4 months of inventory.

SELLING PRICES: average and median sold prices

The median selling price for a home dropped below $1,000,000 for the first time since October of last year. In fact, the median price for this August was lower than August of 2021. However, the median selling price year-to-date is still up 15.1% over 2021 and 50% over 2019.

You can look to the luxury market to find the reason for the price decline in August. The luxury market, homes prices $3,000,000 and up, peaked during April and May this year. There were 16 luxury home sales in April followed by 15 in May. The average selling price for a luxury home in May was $7,575,000. And, of the 16 homes sold in April, all but one were sold for cash.

Condos are a different story. Prices and sales are up this month. Inventory is down. More than half, 53 of 103 of the sales, were cash sales.

Overall the median price for a condo is up 20% from the same period last year. The areas with the biggest gains include Lahaina, up 48%, Kaanapali, up 50%, and a bit of a surprise, Molokai, up 51.6% with 38 sales. 

Get more information and details

To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com.  If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you.  As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.

______________________________________

About Aloha Group Maui

Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business.  We are in business for pleasure and profit.  We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit).  Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed.  So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.

Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization.  Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.  

Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz).  She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.

Copyright 2022 L. Lee Potts

Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc.  While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed.  This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes.  Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.  

Once we get to about the middle of September, whale enthusiasts start to anxiously await the return of the humpback whales (kohola). The first one was spotted last year at the beginning of October and while "official" whale season doesn't start until December 15, there are plenty that apparently don't check their phones before swimming this way! 

The best time to see these "winter birds" (annual visitors to Maui) however, is usually January and February. 

The humpback whales "summer" in Alaska and about 12,000 whales follow the same migration patterns to Hawaii every year. The whales travel over 3,500 miles in a 4-6 week time frame. Females come to give birth and to raise their calves in the relative predator free, warm waters of Hawaii or to breed (which is why the males come). The gestational period for a humpback whale is 11-12 months, so it is safe to say the calves born one summer where the calves bred the previous summer. The calves are roughly 2,000 pounds at birth (phew!) and gain about 100 pounds a day from their mother's milk, which is 50% fat. 

One of the more phenomenal things to experience during whale season is hearing the male humpbacks sing. Each whale has his own song and wherever he left off singing before he starts his journey to Alaska, is where he'll pick up singing once he is back in Hawaiian waters (don't we all sing more when we're in Hawaii!). Scientists believe the songs are to attract females. If you're lucky, can hold your breath for 30 seconds or so, and are snorkeling on West Maui, you can hear the songs underwater. The songs can travel up to 12 miles underwater, but sound so much closer, almost as if you look over your shoulder, a whale will be right there. It is an otherworldly sound, beautiful and mournful all at the same time. Many whale watch companies have hydrophones, so if you prefer to watch from the boat, you won't have to miss out on the experience. 

One of our favorite things on Maui is going on a whale watch as often as we can, so if you can't find us during whale season, we're likely on the water!