May 2026 — What You Need to Know

▸  Lahaina residential rebuild: 562 permits issued, 206 homes complete, 310 under construction. Real progress — but still a long way to go.

▸  Front Street commercial rebuild: Barely started. County targeting July 2026 for infrastructure completion. Commercial openings still years away.

▸  Voluntary buyout program launching July 2026 for makai-side Front Street parcels — $50M in federal funds available.

▸  Maui tourism up 11.5% year-over-year in February — but Canada is soft and visitor counts remain below 2019 levels.

▸  The visitor profile is shifting: fewer people, more spending per visit. This matters if you own a vacation rental.

▸  This month's Bill 9 and H3/H4 update is covered separately — link in show notes and at AlohaGroupMaui.com.

 

Aloha, this is Lahaina Lee with the May 2026 edition of the Maui Real Estate Advisor.

This month I'm splitting my update into two pieces. Last week I covered the market data: condos, homes, inventory, prices. This week: Lahaina and tourism. My Bill 9 and H3/H4 deep-dive is a separate piece, because that topic deserves its own space and its own audience. If you own or are considering an apartment-zoned condo on Maui, that one's required reading.

But let's start here. Lahaina.

 

Lahaina Recovery Update – May 2026

Almost three years out from the fire, and Lahaina is still the most important story in Maui real estate. Not because the market data demands it, but because what happens in Lahaina shapes the economic character of this entire island, and the pace of that recovery affects real estate values, tourism, and investor confidence in ways that don't always show up in the MLS numbers. 

 

I want to be direct about where things actually stand, because the summary numbers can sound more encouraging than the reality on the ground.

 

Residential Rebuild – The Numbers

The MauiRecovers.org dashboard as of early May 2026 shows:

 

Item

Status as of May 2026

Permits issued

562 total residential building permits

Homes completed

206 completed and approved for occupancy

Under construction

310 homes actively being built

In processing

357 permits currently being reviewed

Non-residential permits

25 issued (9 completed); 163 in process

FEMA housing

530 households still in temporary housing; extended into 2027

Population

Maui County down approximately 3,400 residents since the disaster

 

That residential progress is real, and I don't want to minimize it. The county implemented a fast-track permitting process, and the average time to receive a building permit approval is now 44 days. There are neighborhoods in Lahaina where you can hear hammers and heavy equipment: and that matters of course. And, yet I have clients who have been in the process for over a year. 

 

And the fire destroyed roughly 2,200 structures. On the residential side alone, we're about a quarter of the way through. More than 1,100 property owners haven't started, can't start, or – and this is the part that really worries me – may have already given up. The properties along the shoreline in particular are stalled. Owners there face additional layers of coastal regulations, historic district requirements, and financing complexity that is genuinely crippling for some.

 

Front Street and Commercial Rebuild – The Harder Truth

If the residential picture is cautiously encouraging, the commercial picture is not. Nobody on Front Street has opened a new building yet. Not one.

As of early May 2026, the county has issued 25 non-residential permits, mostly tenant improvements, with 163 more in process. No commercial submittals were filed in 2026 at the time of the May community meeting. Let that sink in: two and a half years after the fire, and the queue for new commercial construction in the heart of Lahaina is still essentially empty.

The reasons are real and they're complicated. Front Street sits within Lahaina's National Historic Landmark District, the Special Management Area, and the shoreline zone — any structure near the water must navigate overlapping requirements from the state, county, and federal government simultaneously. One architect working on four commercial projects filed for a building permit in June 2025 and received a letter in April 2026, ten months later, telling him he needs an archaeological inventory survey before they can proceed. His response: 'I am beyond frustrated by all of this, but to be fair to the county... it's just much more complicated than anybody ever visualized.'

A fourth-generation owner of the historic Pioneer Inn told a reporter he fully intends to rebuild,  "We're literally starting the process today" and described the challenge as getting all the approving authorities on the same page. Every property has its own path. There's no blanket process. There's no checklist.

One architect estimated the full rebuild of Front Street could run $300 million, and said a realistic timeline for Lahaina to 'start to look like it used to look' is 10 years from the fire — meaning 2033.

 

The Voluntary Buyout Program – A New Option for Makai (Oceanfront) Owners

One of the most significant developments out of the May 6 Maui Recovers community meeting was the county's announcement of a voluntary buyout program targeted at the makai side of Front Street and properties within Historic Districts 1 and 2.

The county will offer to purchase these parcels at post-disaster fair market value, subject to a HUD-required award cap. The funding, $50 million reallocated from federal CDBG-DR disaster recovery funds, is in place. Applications expected to open July 2026.

Acquired properties become permanent open space. Deeds would include recorded restrictions prohibiting redevelopment except for limited public uses, beach access, parks, restrooms. No hotels, no commercial redevelopment.

This is "entirely" voluntary. Property owners who want to rebuild can still pursue permits. But for owners who have been through two and a half years of regulatory complexity and concluded that they simply cannot get there, this is a viable, some might say forced, exit ramp.

 

Cultural Recovery – The Story Behind the Story

The fire created an opening, painful as it was, for restoration efforts stalled for generations. The Lahaina Royal Complex project, including the restoration of Mokuula, a sacred island once home to King Kamehameha III that had been buried under a baseball field for over a century, is now moving forward with active county and state support. Organizations like Lahaina Strong have described it as something that 'felt like a far-off dream' now becoming real.

The Lahaina Restoration Foundation is working to rebuild eight historic structures, including the Old Lahaina Courthouse. Estimated cost: approximately $40 million. Construction on the courthouse is scheduled to begin in 2028 and finish in 2029. Artifacts recovered from the fire sites                             , Native Hawaiian stone, Chinese jade, plantation-era cast iron, missionary-era silver, survived in ways that surprised everyone. The cultural recovery is real, even if it's moving on a timeline measured in years, not months.

 

Maui Tourism Update – May 2026

The tourism data is genuinely better than it was a year ago. But 'better' and 'back' are two different things, and for anyone running the numbers on a vacation rental investment, that distinction matters a lot.

 

The February 2026 Numbers

The most recent official data from DBEDT and HTA: February 2026 Maui visitor arrivals up 11.5% year-over-year to approximately 223,000 visitors. Visitor spending rose 6.8% to about $571.5 million. Hotel occupancy improved to 78%, with the Lahaina/Ka'anapali/Kapalua corridor at 76.3%.

Those are real numbers. But context matters: February is peak season, and the comparison year was still a recovery year. Against 2019, the last clean baseline, Maui is still running well below peak visitor volume.

 

Patterns Worth Watching

Fewer visitors, higher spending per visitor. The defining pattern of Maui's tourism recovery. The visitor profile has shifted toward higher-income travelers. For properties that appeal to that demographic, revenue can hold even when occupancy dips. Budget-oriented vacation rentals in apartment complexes are feeling more pressure, not less.

Canada is soft. Political and economic uncertainty north of the border is keeping Canadian visitors on the sidelines. U.S. West, U.S. East, Japan, and Korea are showing stronger recovery. If you own a property that historically attracted Canadian guests, factor this into your projections.

West Maui is active but noticeably less crowded. Restaurants are busy. The harbor is running tours. But one of the pools at a large resort, which I drove by last week and counted, had five people in it. That is not a full resort.

Shoulder season is soft. May is historically one of Maui's slower months, and this May feels slower than average. This is seasonal, not structural, but a reminder that recovery is not even across all months of the year.

'Iao Valley State Monument remains temporarily closed through late June for bridge safety upgrades, a real revenue drag heading into summer season.

 

What This Means for Maui Real Estate

The honest summary: tourism recovery is real but uneven. Occupancy is improving but hasn't returned to 2019 levels. Operating costs, insurance, HOA fees, property management, have risen meaningfully since pre-fire years, compressing net returns even when gross revenue holds.

For buyers considering a vacation rental condo: run your numbers conservatively. Use current occupancy data, not 2021 peak-year data. Account for higher insurance and HOA costs. And be honest with yourself about what zoning your target property is in. Speaking of which, that's exactly what my Bill 9 piece covers. Find it at AlohaGroupMaui.com.

 

Our Take

Lahaina is still the story. The pace of commercial recovery on Front Street directly affects property values, tourism demand, and the character of West Maui for everyone who lives, works, or owns there.

Tourism is improving — just not uniformly, and not fast enough to fill the gap created by three years of fire recovery and regulatory uncertainty. The people who understand what's actually happening on the ground will be best positioned for what comes next.

 

Questions? Reach out directly: Lee@AlohaPotts.com — I answer every one.

 

From the greatest island on earth — this is Lahaina Lee saying aloha.

 

Frequently Asked Questions — Lahaina Recovery & Maui Tourism

The questions we hear most from buyers, sellers, and investors right now.

 

What is the current status of Lahaina's rebuild in 2026?

As of May 2026, the MauiRecovers.org dashboard shows 562 residential permits issued, 206 homes completed, 310 homes under construction, and 357 permits in processing. Commercial rebuilding on Front Street is in early stages — 25 non-residential permits issued, 163 in process. No new commercial buildings have opened on Front Street. Realistically, meaningful sections won't be open to visitors for another one to three years.

 

When will Front Street in Lahaina reopen?

There is no set timeline. County infrastructure work — seawall repairs, sidewalks, railings — is targeted for completion by July 2026. But full commercial reopening is likely still several years away. One architect working on multiple projects described the process as 'much more complicated than anybody ever visualized' and said a 10-year rebuild timeline from the fire — meaning 2033 — is realistic.

 

Is Maui tourism recovering?

Yes, with caveats. February 2026 visitor arrivals rose 11.5% year-over-year to about 223,000 visitors, with spending up 6.8% to approximately $571.5 million. Hotel occupancy improved to 78%. However, visitor volume remains below 2019 levels, Canada is soft, and shoulder seasons are noticeably slower than pre-fire years. The visitor profile is skewing toward higher spenders — good for revenue, but not a rising tide that lifts all boats.

 

How does the Lahaina recovery affect Maui real estate values?

Lahaina's recovery pace directly affects West Maui property values, tourism demand, and investor confidence across the island. A slower commercial rebuild means fewer visitors in the West Maui corridor, which suppresses rental demand and makes the economic recovery case harder for investors. When Front Street commercial activity does return — even partially — it will be a meaningful positive signal for West Maui real estate.

 

What is the voluntary buyout program for Front Street property owners?

The county is launching a voluntary buyout program for parcels on the makai side of Front Street and within Historic Districts 1 and 2. Funded with $50 million in federal CDBG-DR funds, it allows owners to sell at post-disaster fair market value. Acquired parcels become permanent open space. Applications open July 2026. Participation is entirely voluntary.

 

About Lahaina Lee & The Maui Real Estate Advisor

Lahaina Lee is a licensed real estate broker on Maui, Hawaii, and the publisher of the Maui Real Estate Advisor — a monthly market report covering Maui condo and single-family home trends, luxury real estate, short-term rental regulations, the Lahaina rebuild, and Maui's broader economic picture.

Contact: Lee@AlohaPotts.com  |  AlohaGroupMaui.com