Aloha!

Summer is in full swing on Maui, kids have been out of school long enough to get bored and parents to get a little crazy! Beach parking lots are packed, and if youʻre lucky enough to find a spot for you car, you might be out of luck for a place to relax. Itʻs not often that Maui beaches are reminiscent of a busy California beach, but a nice day in July would be the time. However, the water is still sparkling, and the palm trees are still swaying, so it is still paradise. 

Interestingly though, both May and June reported lower visitor numbers to the island. While that certainly had an effect on the lodging industry, spending everywhere else was up, which is made apparent when you're trying to get a reservation at your favorite restaurant! July has seemed busier, but if you're wanting a quick get-away, there are deals to be had, both on airlines and lodging.

The weather has been hovering around 85 degrees and the trade winds have been gently blowing most of the month. Hurricane Calvin passed through, but all we got was a bit of rain and wind.

We know the temperature on Maui is hot, but how is the real estate market. Summer is typically a hotter time for the real estate market. Things are a bit cooler this year with the low inventory and higher borrowing costs. Fed Chair Powell, along with some other powerful financiers, is continuing to increase interest rates, which in turn kicks up mortgage rates. So it has stalled some buyers and sellers. How is that affecting the Maui real estate market? Let's do the numbers.

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SALES:

Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks before closing.

According to the National Association of REALTORS® home sales were down 20% nationally from June 2022 to June 2023. On Maui the number is a little bit higher.

From January to June of 2022 there were 568 closed home sales on Maui, and from January to June 2023 the number dropped to 374, which is about a 34% decrease.

From January to June 2022 there were 973 closed condo sales, and from January to June 2023 the condo sales dropped to 506, which is about a 47% decrease.

Another way to look at this is that home sales have dropped by one-third and condo sales are off by half. That sounds devastating to the real estate market.

What that shows is the same old story of low inventory. The Maui market has remained strong despite the rising interest rates, but what is selling is a reflection of what is available. And condos, at certain price points, continue to sell as soon as they are listed. 

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INVENTORY:

Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category.

June 2022 showed 2.9 months of homes inventory; compared to June 2023, there is 3.7 months of inventory. That sounds like good news for inventory, but when you look at the actual numbers, you see that June has the second lowest number of homes for sale of any month so far this year.

Condo inventory is reflecting a similar illusion. Last June we had enough condo inventory for 1.6 months and we have almost doubled that at 2.8 months of inventory. However, last June there were 150 condo sales, and this June there were only 90 sales. So even through there is more inventory coming to the market, it isn't lasting long, particularly for vacation rentable condos. It is still challenging for prospective buyers to find that perfect property.

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PENDING SALES: 

One of Aloha Group Maui's pending sales.

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SELLING PRICES: average and median sold price

We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because the median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low-priced sales.

There have been some discouraging trends nationally with home values; according to the National Association of REALTORS® the median home sales price in May was down 3.1% from a year ago, and that was the fourth consecutive month of declining home prices year-over-year.

We have not seen that on Maui, and the median home sales prices have remained fairly steady. In fact there was a continued increase in home prices across the various neighborhoods on Maui. The low inventory and high demand from both residents and out-of-state buyers contributed to the slight increase. We are still seeing multiple offers and strong sales prices, particularly with condos. 

Vacation rental properties are the most sought after property on Maui, and as mentioned, they are sold nearly as soon as they hit the market.

We have a FREE 1031 Exchange seminar on August 10 at the Kahului branch of the American Savings Bank. It starts at 6 pm, and dinner will be served. We will be discussing how to grow your real estate investments through a 1031 exchange, and the American Savings Bank team will provide some insight into loans for investments and how you can use your equity in your home to invest in other properties. Space is limited, so register through our website today. We hope to see your there!

If you would like to learn about a 1031 Exchange now, click here to watch a previously recorded version of our seminar. 

If you have any questions about what is happening on Maui or any real estate, we'd love to hear from you.

A Hui Hou!

Get more information and details

To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com.  If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you.  As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.

______________________________________

About Aloha Group Maui

Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), Heather Zidell, R(S), Magdalena Odonnell R(S), Sarah Twitchell R(S), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business.  We are in business for pleasure and profit.  We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit).  Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed.  So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.

Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization.  Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.  

Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz).  She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.

Copyright 2023 L. Lee Potts

Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc.  While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed.  This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes.  Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.  

Presented by Aloha Group Maui

Issue 71, Quarter 2 ~ 2023

Aloha from your resident experts!

The island is a hive of activity, summer is here in full swing! Fewer visitors and less revenue were reported for May, but June felt like things picked up. And if the line at Ululani's on Front Street isn't an indication of a full island, then I guess look at the roads. We just have to look back a few years to remind ourselves to be thankful for the crowds. Rights?!?

And what a difference a few years make (particularly the last few years!). Looking back at quarter 2 of 2020, we reported lower prices and unsold listings at the end of the quarter. How the tides have turned! At the ed of Q2 this year, we are reporting continued record prices and listings that barely last a week before going under contract and with multiple offers.

Apart from one unit early in Q1, each unit that has sold in the last two quarters has sold at asking or above asking price and with few units coming to the market in Aina Nalu, there is no indication of these record prices slowing down anytime soon.

Overall, while condo sales and prices remain strong for the rest of Maui, they are not setting records for selling prices. This will be interesting to watch as we keep an eye on condo inventory since it seems likely sales may start to slow down in late summer or early fall. Seasonally, fall typically has fewer listings but there hasn't been much typical about this year; we need more listings!

From April 1 to June 30 there were 3 listings and 2 closed sales. There were 0 cancelled listings, and 0 expired listings and the end of the quarter. There were 0 active listings and 1 pending sale at the end of the quarter. 

For more details on current Maui real estate prices and sales, go to the Maui Real Estate Advisor for all the stats. 

Aloha!

It's been an interesting week or so in economics for the U.S. As most expected, the debt ceiling crisis was averted, but the politicians still managed to freak out some of the markets, at least a little bit, before they got it done. The federal jobs report came in and reported there were more new jobs than expected, and higher unemployment than expected. The Fed hinted they may skip raising the fed interest rate in June. The stock market was up, and bonds were down.

Why do we care? Because it affects mortgage rates and, according to lenders we work with, rates dropped slightly toward the end of the week. Yay!

Taken together, those things affect consumer confidence. And since Maui's economic lifeblood depends on consumers confidently coming to Maui and consuming, it's important, or certainly should be, to anyone who owns a business, is employed, or collects taxes here on Maui.

And how's that working out right now? Well, the most recent information we have is the visitor spending data from April. Maui Now reported that visitor spending in April was up 36% over the same period back in the "normal" days of 2019. Interestingly, kind of like that confusing jobs report, the number of visitors to Maui in April this year was down compared to 2019, but they spent more.

I'm pretty sure a lot of those visitors, as well as a lot of folks who live here full time, would like to be spending money on Maui real estate. However, the new supply is not keeping up with demand. So...let's do the numbers.

SALES:

Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere from 20 to 8 weeks before closing.

The number of homes sold in May rose nicely to 74 closed sales. That is the highest number of sales closed in a single month this year. Given the other data, that's a little confusing. Home inventory, homes available for sale, has steadily declined since January. During the same period, pending sales, homes going under contract, have increased. It's kind of like the jobs report, confusing.

Condo sales were flat month over month. With inventory holding steady in the 2-month range, keeping sales in the high eighties is amazing and demonstrates how strong the Maui market for condos is, particularly vacation rentable condos. From a buyer's perspective, it seems like there is "nothing" for sale, but the actual number of sales tells a different story. Condos come on the market for sale and get sold quickly.

INVENTORY:

Inventory tells show many units are available for sale in each category.

Inventory may not be the whole story, but it plays a huge role. The number of homes for sale has declined every month this year. In May, homes for sale dropped another 3%. That drop, along with increased sales, pushed our months of inventory back down to just 3 months. What is inexplicable is that pending sales for homes have risen fairly consistently this year from 103 in January to 135 in May, the highest number this year. That means that the number of homes that actually close in June should remain near that high May level.

Condo inventory actually had a little bit of a bump, rising 4% and giving us 200 condos for sale. With pending sales also rising slightly, we could see the current level of sales remain steady for another couple of months.

With 200 condos on the market, there actually is something for sale, but with 88 or 89 sales per month you can see that condos are selling quickly when they hit the market. That is consistent with last month's comment that condo sales will likely begin to slow down in late summer or early fall, unless we see more inventory come to market.

PENDING SALES:

A couple of Aloha Group Maui's current pending sales.

SELLING PRICES: average and median sold price

We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because the median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high or very low priced sales.

Selling prices are not confusing. Given the high number of sales to the inventory level you would expect that prices would continue to increase, and you wouldn't be wrong. The average selling price for a single family home grew 19% over April's price and topped the $2 million mark for the second time this year.

The median selling price climbed 14% to $1,271,500. That is a new record high median price for Maui and could hold at that level for a while. The median asking price for the current 137 homes under contract, pending, is $1,273,000. Those are the homes that will be closing in the next couple of months. Also, the median asking price for a home on Maui is just under $2.2 million, and there are only 55 homes for sale priced at $1.75 million or lower.

While condo sales and prices remain strong, they did not set new records for selling prices. The average selling price for a condo dropped 11% to $982,904, dipping below $1 million for the first time this year.

The median selling price was also down by 5% to $835,000. However, since condos under contract that will be closing in the next couple of months have a median price of $1.4M it is reaonsalbe to expect that the median selling price will continue to rise in upcoming months.

We are happy to announce that we are returning to presenting our Real Estate Planning Seminars. In addition to Building Wealth and Creating a Legacy through 1031 Exchanges, we have added Senior Living Options, Planning for the Future and Beyond and, later this year, we plan to add a seminar for Trustees. We plan to make these or portions of them available online for those won can't make it to the live seminar. For more information, go to the Real Estate Planner tab on our website.

Save the date! Our next in-person 1031 Exchange Seminar will be held Thursday, August 10, we will provide more information on location and time as the date gets closer. If you would like to learn about a 1031 Exchange now, see below to watch a previously recorded version of our seminar.

If you have any questions about what is happening on Maui or any real estate questions, we'd love to hear from you.

A Hui Hou!

Get more information and details

To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com.  If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you.  As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.

______________________________________

About Aloha Group Maui

Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), Heather Zidell, R(S), Magdalena Odonnell R(S), Sarah Twitchell R(S), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business.  We are in business for pleasure and profit.  We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit).  Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed.  So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.

Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization.  Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.  

Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz).  She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.

Copyright 2023 L. Lee Potts

Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc.  While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed.  This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes.  Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.  

Aloha,

It's May on Maui, and it's probably May where you are too. On Maui, May brings graduations, the beginning of wedding season, and, for us, the definite end of whale season. Although whales were reported being seen as late as last week, sadly, they will be on their way back to Alaska now. 

May is also considered to be one of our "shoulder" seasons. It is a space in time between our winter travelers who are here to escape from those cold places on the mainland, like the west coast, and summer visitors who come to enjoy Maui when the kids get out of school for the summer. 

In the olden days, the winter and the summer were both "high" seasons for Maui. No, not that high:). It meant there are a lot of travelers here. The hotels and condos, as well as the restaurants and the tourist activities were full. The shoulder season time meant there were fewer guests, higher vacancies, and Maui got a bit of a break.

These days, in the time of Al (don't get me started), the hotels and airlines have figured out how to adjust prices to lure price sensitive and bargain savvy travelers to the island. So, the island is still packed, and shoulder season is about as busy as any other season.

For those of us who live here, every day in May is just like every other day, another day is paradise.

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SALES:

Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks before closing.

After an encouraging increase in March sales, home sales fell back to what the market and economic factors are dictating to be the current normal. There were 56 homes sold in May, which according to the Maui MLS means we have 4 months of inventory. However, with the median asking price for a home on Maui at $2.1 million and the median actual selling price at just $1.1 million, we might see the number of sales continue to decline. 

And when did you ever think you would hear someone say that a house would cost just $1.1 million?!?

For comparison's sake, the last time the number of sales was consistently as low as the beginning of this year, was the first few months of 2009. Back then the median selling price for a home was $567,000, and there were over 1,100 homes for sale. 

Condos also had an encouraging sales spike in March, but, as with homes, slid backwards in April. However, there were still 89 sales during the month, which is the second highest number of condo sales in any month so far this year. Pending sales have been holding pretty steady for a few months now, and inventory, although very low, has also been fairly steady. There is also a good match between the median selling price for condos, we we may see the same level of sales for a while. At least until we run out of condos for sale. 

Click here to see condos for sale on Maui.

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INVENTORY:

Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category.

The 241 homes for sale on Maui on May 1, is the lowest number of homes for sale this year. The highest number for sale wasn't much higher at 271 homes in both January and February. the 241 homes for sale translates into 4 months of inventory, which is still a seller's market. The current number of new listings is also down 37% compared to the same time last year. That would be another indication that home sales will remain low.

Click here to see homes for sale on Maui.

Condo inventory dropped below 200 units once again. That gives us just a tad over 2 months of inventory for sale, and with new listings down more than 43% from last year, it's hard to see sales continuing at the pace of the last 2 months. So, that thing I said about sales continuing at the same level - never mind. We can expect that sales will fall back to the 60 to 70 units we saw earlier this year. 

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SELLING PRICES: average and median sold price

We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis because the median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low priced sales.

The average selling price for a home dropped $246,000 from March to April, coming in at $1,735,500. However, though the first 4 months of 2023 selling prices on Maui are still up 5.6%. If that seems like a "Maui thing", CoreLogic, a national real estate date company, reported that the average home price nationally was up 1% in the first quarter of 2023. The median price for a house in the USA at the end of April was $388,800.

The median selling price for a home on Maui dropped $78,500 month over month but remained above $1.1. million. There are currently 42 homes for sale in Maui County priced at $1.1 or below. The 3 lowest priced homes are all on the island of Molokai. The highest priced home on Maui is in Kapalua, priced at $41,900,000, and it has been on the market for 221 days.

The average selling price for a condo fell $56,000 month over month but remained above $1.1. million. The median selling price for condos is up 8.7% and the median price is up 7.2% this year as compared to last year. 

Click here to see what YOUR property is worth.

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DAYS ON MARKET:

The days on market (DOM) is the number of days a property has been on the market until close of escrow.

We don't usually report much on this data point unless there is an anomaly, and last month there was. In March the DOM for condos shot up to 260 days for condos sold. However, not to worry, April's DOM was back down to 115.

And since we brought it up... The average DOM for condos for sale has gotten out of the 80's. In 2021 the "normal" days on market was more like 140 days.

June starts our next busy season for real estate on Maui, that's just around the corner. If you would like to see all of the condo listings on Maui, click here, or home listings on Maui, click here. If you would like to know what your property is worth on Maui, or anywhere in the U.S., click here to get a FREE online estimate of value.

A Hui Hou!

Get more information and details

To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com.  If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you.  As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.

______________________________________

About Aloha Group Maui

Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), Heather Zidell, R(S), Magdalena Odonnell R(S), Sarah Twitchell R(S), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business.  We are in business for pleasure and profit.  We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit).  Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed.  So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.

Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization.  Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.  

Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz).  She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.

Copyright 2023 L. Lee Potts

Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc.  While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed.  This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes.  Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.