Some interesting news. They are talking about an inter-island ferry, connecting Lanai, Molokai and Lanai. Meetings are being held next week.
Turning to the Lahaina wildfire cleanup. This graphic is from the Army Core of Engineers and you can find this at MauiRecovers.org.
Just focusing on the highlights you can see the army core has made excellent progress. 1390 of residential properties have been cleared and it says 1384 have been completed.
102 of commercial properties have been cleared, and 72 are complete, so there is still a lot of work to be done in that sector. Their aim is to be finished by the end of February.
So this is a great website for keeping us posted on what is happening and it's a place you can visit often to get updates. The big question, the one thing everyone wants to know is after the cleanup, what is the plan?
The county has set up an office to expedite building permits, which sounds great, however, progress is very slow and the office is getting mixed reviews from the locals. There is no plan for central Lahaina as yet. There was a report done back in July that a draft plan would be released to the public in the fall. It is now the fall.
The mayor is holding regular budget meetings that are open to the public to get input for the next fiscal year. That fiscal year begins on July 1, 2025. That is the same date that the mayor and many other council members are hoping to shut down a few thousand short term rentals in West Maui. That is going to put a big hole in Maui Country property tax income.
So it seems reasonable to ask, if you need a lot more money than we have to help rebuild Lahaina, and you're planning to cut off one of the biggest sources of revenue for the island, how is the difference going to be made up? I can only think of one way.
If we're talking about the economy, we have to talk about tourism. According to a report published by the research and economic analysis division of the department of business economic development and tourism of the state of Hawaii, about $.70 out of every dollar spent on Maui comes from tourism.
And tourism is down.
As a benchmark, most organizations are using 2019, the year before COVID, as the primary basis for comparison. Overall, tourism in the state of Hawaii is down over 11.5% compared to August 2019. However, spending is actually up 15%.
On Maui, the average daily census for visitors was about 47,000. That is down 26% from August 2019.
For the first 8 months of 2024, there were 1.575 million visitors on Maui. That is down 17.5% from 2023 and over 25% from the first eight months of 2019.
That is the data that has been reported so it sounds like those are the facts.
However, in talking to people who run restaurants, small business owners and managers of short-term rental properties, it feels like business is down about 50%.
In my own, very non-scientific observations that would be anecdotal information, includes the ability to drive up to the gas pump at Costco without waiting in line, and easily finding parking at Costco, Kaanapali Shores, and the local mall areas.
Unemployment on Maui for the last reported month, which was June 2024, is at 4.5%, which is pretty close to full employment. However, unemployment on the other islands is running at about 3%.
So if tourism is down, and spending is down, what do you think is happening to real estate?
Well, let's do the numbers.
Last month, when we looked at condo sales, even though we had 6 sales, a lot of those were from old inventory, so I concluded that we were really looking more like 49 sales. This month, we had 50 sales, so that was fairly consistent. We can see that the inventory stayed over 700, so we still have 14 months worth of inventory.
Now, I'm going to jump down to selling prices, starting with the average sold price. It was a little over $1.1 million in September, compared to over $2 million in August. That big drop-off reflects the closing of all the properties in Wailea and Makena.
The thing that is really interesting about this is that the median selling price stayed at almost $1 million. What's even more interesting is that the median asking price last month was $995,000, while the median sold price was $990,000. So, we keep talking about this being a big buyer's market, but we're just not really seeing that reflected in the numbers.
So that's it for condos. Turning to single-family home sales, we can see that the number of homes sold has been a bit up and down. In June, there were 65 sales. July had 55. August saw 63, and September dropped to 51. So, up and down, up and down. But if we look at the pending sales, in July, it was 132. August dropped to 114, and in September, it went back up to 129. So, maybe we'll see 60 or more sales in October, following the trend set by the number of pending sales.
Inventory is something we always talk about. Home inventory, meaning the number of homes for sale, has been creeping up a little. But in September, it dropped back to 335, so inventory has kind of flattened out. In comparison to sales, we have about six and a half months of inventory. So, from a macro standpoint, the market is actually really balanced.
In terms of single-family home selling prices on Maui, let's look at the average sold price first. Back in July, it was $1.5 million. That rose over to $1.8 million in August and then went over $2 million in September. What's more interesting to me is the median selling price. It went from $1.2 million, to over $1.3 million, and now it's over $1.4 million.
What makes this particularly interesting - though you can't see it here - is that the median asking price for September was $1.426 million, while the median selling price was $1.428 million. So, the selling prices were actually higher than the asking prices. That's a pretty interesting trend in a market where it's really a buyer's market in much of the island.
That's the news on real estate. A little news on the rebuilding process over here on Maui, maybe a few opinions... If you're watching this from the mainland and thinking about coming over, come on over - there's room! Plenty of room at the restaurants too, so come and pay us a visit. If you're here on Maui, I think the economic scene is going to be turning around. We'll get through the elections in November, both local and national, and hopefully, we'll get another rate cut, which will help things out. And as it gets colder on the mainland, we can count on some visitors coming back.
If you're reading this and have any thoughts or comments, drop them below. We sure appreciate it, and we hope to see you soon. From not Lahaina, this is Lahaina Lee saying ALOOOHA.
Get more information and details
To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com. If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you. As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.
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About Aloha Group Maui
Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), Heather Zidell, R(S), Magdalena Odonnell R(S), Sarah Twitchell R(B), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business. We are in business for pleasure and profit. We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit). Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed. So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.
Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization. Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.