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This is where you can find out more about what's new at Aloha Group Maui - new homes for sale, new condos for sale, video tours, 3D tours, price adjustments, open houses, our community involvement, and Maui fun!

 

Aug. 2, 2022

Maui Real Estate Advisor ~ July Real Estate Statistics


Interest rates have skyrocketed, sellers are dropping prices, we're dangerously close to recession...Is the real estate sky falling?

Um...No, not really, not yet anyway.

Inventory is up, sales are down, and sellers are lowering their asking prices, but the actual selling prices? Well, those are still climbing.

SALES:

Home sales dropped 13% in June to 85 sales. That just happens to be the same number of sales on the island as back in February. The decrease in sales combined with a 28% increase in inventory gives us 3 months' worth of homes for sale. While it is still very much a seller's market for homes, higher inventory should mean more choices for buyers. However, the median selling price still rose again in June.

Condo sales, on the other hand, did not decline during June. There were 150 sales, the same number of sales as in May. The median selling price rose a whopping 16% and the average price was up 11%. Inventory for condos climbed 30%. That sounds like a huge increase, but we still have just 1.4 months of inventory. So, it is still a strong seller's market here on Maui. 

INVENTORY:

Inventory tells us how many properties are available for sale in each category. We started seeing some growth in inventory in May for homes and condos. However, even the combination of increased inventory and increased interest rates are not yet impacting selling prices. 

SELLING PRICES: average and median sold prices

We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because the median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low priced sales.

So while the average home price declined in June, the median still increased. We also saw increases in both the average and the median selling prices for condos.

Where is real estate going? What's the news and what can you expect?

The reporters are talking doom and gloom. In fact, the Wall Street Journal reported that three-quarters of global CEO's say we are in a recession or will be in the next 12-18 months. Corelogic, one of the largest real estate data firms, points out that a recession doesn't equal a housing crisis.

It may be counter intuitive, but in the last 6 recessions, home prices actually increased.

Why? People are still going to get married and have babies. They'll need a bigger house. The babies will grow up and move out. People will need smaller houses. There will still be divorces, and houses will be sold and bought, and people who come to Maui will still likely want to own on Maui.

While interest rates are up, double those in 2021, they were down this week. And, as it relates to recession, rates tend to decline as recessions reach their end. According to Fortune Magazine, in the last 5 recessions mortgage rates fell an average of 1.8% from peak to trough.

I'm not saying the shifting market won't be stressful. Many of us went through a very hard time during the housing crash of 2007 and the next few years following. But the fundamentals today are very different than in 2007. We are in a seller's market today; '07 was a buyers' market and lenders were giving loans away to anyone who could fog a mirror.

So, if you are having second thoughts about buying you might take some comfort in what the experts are forecasting. 100 economist forecast that 2022 prices will be up 9.3% compared to 2021. You can see in the chart below that the increase in home selling prices is decelerating through 2024. It is very important to understand that deceleration does not mean stopping or declining. The expectation is that prices will continue to rise at a "normal" pace for the foreseeable future. 

If you are thinking about selling, it's still a seller's market. While interest rates are up, we are still seeing multiple offers, and 30% of June home sales were cash offers. For condos 40% of the transactions were cash offers. I do offer a word of caution. If you are thinking of selling, don't dawdle. While we don't see a downward trend in the numbers, headlines of gloom and doom tend to become self-fulfilling prophecies.

If you are thinking of buying, let's talk about your goals. If it's the right time to your goals can be met, great. If the timing and the market aren't right for you, then let's see if we can help you develop Plan B. We understand what's at stake, and there will never be pressure or overselling from our team.

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Get more information and details

To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com.  If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you.  As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.

 

About Aloha Group Maui

Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business.  We are in business for pleasure and profit.  We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit).  Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed.  So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.

 

Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization.  Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.  

 

Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz).  She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.

 

Copyright 2022 L. Lee Potts

Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc.  While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed.  This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes.  Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.  

 

July 12, 2022

Aina Nalu News - Q2 2022

Aina Nalu News

Presented by Aloha Group Maui

Issue 67, Q2 - 2022

 

Aloha from your resident experts!

The second quarter of 2022 has felt like a return to the days of yore...or at least the days before COVID. We have enjoyed community events again: the King Kamehameha parade, fireworks on Front Street, concerts at the MACC and even just simple things like being able to go to a movie. Even real estate seems to be settling a little bit.

Though perhaps that isn't exactly the case at Aina Nalu. Units continue to sell before they are even listed and prices only continue to increase. Days of market ranges from 15 to 72 days, with a low average of 36 DOM. Everyone wants to own at the best resort in Lahaina!

Here is a summary of what happened in Q1 2022 vs. Q2 2022: 

As of July 5, there are two units in escrow, B101 was in escrow at quarter's end and D103 went into escrow as of July 5. B101 is listed at $800,000 and D103 is listed at $850,000. We closed the quarter with the highest sold price in Aina Nalu history.

Overall, real estate does seem to be slowing down, overall number of escrows is down and inventory is up a little bit. However, what hasn't changed is prices, it is still a seller's market!

From April 1 - June 30 there were 5 listings and 4 closed sales. There were 0 cancelled listings, and 0 expired listings at the end of the quarter. There were 0 active listings and 1 pending sale at the end of the quarter.

 For more details on current Maui real estate prices and sales, go to the Maui Real Estate Advisor for all the stats. 

July 8, 2022

Daily Dose of Vitamin Sea ~ July 8, 2022

Happy Aloha Friday! 

What's on your weekend agenda? If you're on Maui, here are some ideas: Whatever you do, and wherever you are, we hope you have a fantastic weekend! 
 
Congratulations to team member Cheri Miller! She just received her Graduate Realtor Institute designation which means she is "in the know" about the latest and greatest real estate technology and local and national legal issues. 
 
Don't turn around, don't look back.
Keep moving forward.
Keep pushing, the pot of gold is at the end of the rainbow not the beginning.
~Ziad Abdelnour
Posted in Community, Maui Fun
June 30, 2022

Daily Dose of Vitamin Sea ~ June 30, 2022

Update from Maui ~ your daily dose of "vitamin sea"

Aloha!

This summer is flying by! We have been so thankful for the return of some of our favorite traditions. 

Lanai is having an aerial display on July 2 as part of their 26th Annual Pineapple Festival (which sounds pretty fun in and of itself!!). The fireworks will start at 8:30 from none other than Dole Park. 

And, our favorite fireworks are happening again from a barge just off of Front Street in Lahaina. They are set to begin around 8:00. We'll see you there!
 
The King Kamehameha Parade was back this year!
 
I love to soar in the boundless sky.
In the vast emptiness of the blue, my soul rejoices listening to the soundless music of the wind.
~Banani Ray
Posted in Community, Maui Fun
June 3, 2022

Daily Dose of Vitamin Sea ~ June 3, 2022

Happy Aloha Friday!

If you're on Maui and don't have plans this weekend (and you like livestock...), check out the Maui AgFest & 4-H Livestock Fair. Even if you don't like livestock, we're excited that another community event is able to happen again! There is all sorts of excitement, pancake breakfast, Grown on Maui Farmers' Market, Livestock show and more! Admission is free and it will be held at War Memorial Stadium on Saturday, from 9-4:30. Click here for more information

If you're looking for something on the other end of the spectrum, the 41st Annual Kapalua Wine & Food Festival is happening June 9-12. There are some pretty tasty options, and some events are already sold out. Click here for the schedule and ticket sales.

Whatever you decide to do this weekend, we hope it is relaxing. Let us know how things are going! 
 
Thank you to all of you that have trusted us with your piece of paradise. We couldn't have achieved this without you!
 
Life takes you down many paths,
but my favorite ones lead to the beach.
Posted in Community, Maui Fun
May 17, 2022

Daily Dose of Vitamin Sea ~ May 17, 2022

Aloha!

There are two more weeks of school here (can anyone else believe it!) and the heat of summer feels like it is in full swing. Thank goodness for the trade winds! Maui is surprisingly busy in the summer months, but with fuel (who else wants to go back to the horse and cart system?!?) and hotel prices the way they are it will be interesting to see how this summer compares to a pre-COVID summer. 
At any rate, whatever your summer plans are, we would love to answer any questions, or just catch up. Feel free to call or email us anytime!
 
Whoever started the sweet childhood story that roosters only crow one time just as the sun comes up obviously did not live in Hawaii...no, it's ALL. DAY. LONG.
 you are exactly where you need to be
Posted in Community, Maui Fun
May 5, 2022

Daily Dose of Vitamin Sea ~ May 5, 2022

Aloha!

As much as things seem to be getting back to normal, there still seem to be a few random disappointments. For some (not me mind you) it is the cancellation of the Maui Fair, for the third year in a row. There was also a short-lived ban at a local high school on lei-giving at graduation, fortunately, there was such an outcry from the community, the school reversed the decision.

Speaking of lei-giving at graduation, which is coming up shortly here on Maui, if you've never had the opportunity to participate in a Hawaiian graduation ceremony (or any other big occasion really) you're missing out! It is one of my favorite traditions seeing the students celebrated and honored with a neck full of leis. It is a truly beautiful event.
As always, we would love to answer any questions, or just catch up. Feel free to call or email us anytime!
 
"She loved the sea. She liked the sharp salty smell of the air, and the vastness of the horizons bounded only by a value of azure sky above. It made her feel small, but free as well." 
~ George Martin
Posted in Community, Maui Fun
April 22, 2022

Daily Dose of Vitamin Sea ~ April 22, 2022

Happy Earth Day!

And we love to celebrate our little corner of the Earth! If anything good came out of the COVID pandemic, it was that our little island got a chance to breathe. Coral reefs began to recover, there was less traffic and things just generally quieted down. Hopefully, it made us all a little more mindful of how we steward the earth around us and hopefully, we can carry some of those lessons forward.
As always, we would love to answer any questions, or just catch up. Feel free to call or email us anytime!
"The Earth is what we all have in common." 
~ Wendell Berry
 
Posted in Community, Maui Fun
April 12, 2022

Maui Real Estate Advisor ~ April Real Estate Statistics

Is Maui's real estate market crashing or cruising?

As most people who are even tangentially following real estate prices know, the value of your investment(s) literally started to skyrocket in late 2020. In 2021 real estate prices continued to climb, and now 3 months into 2022, people are wondering what is happening, and what can we expect to happen?

For months clients and some folks outside the real estate industry have questioned just how long prices can increase and even raised the specter of the ever dreaded "bubble'. They cite fears like increasing interest rates and potential foreclosures.

The law of supply and demand is alive and well on Maui, and across the US for that matter, but let's focus on Maui. We have less than 2 months' worth of single-family home inventory and less than one month of condo inventory. That means that it is still a strong seller's market. We are currently seeing multiple offers on our listings and are competing against multiple offers with our buyers, with no slowdown in sight.

Interest rates are up. According to Freddie Mac, the conventional fixed rate for March was 4.17%. The rate for the same month in 2019 was 4.27%. The rate did drop in 2020 and 2021, but we are still at historically low rates. Just for some perspective, the average rate back in 2006 and 6.41%. Additionally, about 40% of the sales on Maui are cash sales and don't have a direct effect on what the buyer can afford.

Why are we not going to have a bubble? The bubble that was created leading up to the Great Recession had 2 factors that we don't have today: over-supple and easy credit. Getting back to supply and demand, it was a buyers' market from 2007, when supply was 9.6 months inventory, through 2010 which reported 8.5 months inventory. Credit was also being given away for very little down and no real credit checks. Anyone who has applied for a loan in the last few years can attest those lenders are being quite strict these days.

So, we have:

  • No bubble likely
  • Historically low inventory
  • Still historically low interest rates

To give you a little more perspective, we've compared the most recent trend for the 6 months ending in March 2022, to the same 6-month period ending last year, 2021, to see if we can spot any trends.

______________________________________

SALES:

Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks before closing.

The sales of single-family homes on Maui for the last 6 months have fluctuated from a low of 85 in February to a high of 118 in December, and we averaged 101 sales per month over that time frame. For the same 6-month period ending in March of 2021, we averaged 103 sales per month. That is a difference of just under 2% year over year.

In March we had 181 condo sales. That was the highest number of condo sales in a one-month period since August of 2021 with 186 sales. August of 2021 was also the end of a summertime surge that consisted of 5 straight months of 200+ condo sales per month. However, for the 6 months just ended compared to the same 6 months in 2021, we averaged 6 sales per month higher this year.

Why is this important? These sales levels have persisted in spite of a consistent lack of sustained inventory and steadily increasing prices. Some folks are talking about a shift in the market. We don't see that in a comparison of year over year sales.

What are we seeing in the other key data point?

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PENDING SALES:

Pending sales represent the properties that are under contract but have not yet closed. Pendings are the pipeline that tell us how many sales are likely to happen in the next couple of months.

A comparison of the average number of pending home sales per month for the same 6 months in 2021 vs. 2022 is similar to the comparison of sales noted above. The average number of homes under contract in a month for those 6 months leading up to March 2021 was 237, in March of 2022 it was 210. That is a decline of 11% year over year.

However, March of 2021 had the highest number of home sales in a single month on Maui ever. After that home sales declined slowly until December and have rebounded slightly so far this year.

For the past 6 months ending in March 2022, compared to the same period in 2021, there was a significant increase in the average monthly number of pending condo sales from 237 to 351. However, the tale is in the trend.

For the 6 months ending in March of 2021, the number of condo pendings skyrocketed from 218 in October, to 456 in March. However, we saw condo pendings begin to drop last April all the way through September which ended with 295. Since October, condo sales have come back over to 300 per month and finished in March with 368 units.

A few recent Aloha Group Maui pending sales.

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INVENTORY:

Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category.

Inventory is always the story. It is half of the equation of the most basic economic law: supply and demand. The trend in inventory is a mirror image of the trend for sales and pending sales, reversed.

The home inventory dropped like a rock from 320 homes in October 2020 to just 206 in March of 2021. That is an unprecedented 36% decline in the number of homes for sale. March 2021 was the first month we dropped below 2 months of home inventory. We haven't been over 2 months' worth of homes for sale since.

Condo inventory has been even more dramatic. The number of condos for sale during that time dropped from 733 in October to only 348 at the end of March. That's a 53% drop. Wow! We saw that 6 months run start with a balanced market of 6 month inventory in October of 2020 and jet into a seller's market with one and a half months of inventory last month. 

In March 2022 with 181 sales and 141 condos for sale, we have about 3 weeks of inventory.

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SELLING PRICES: Average and median sold prices

We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because the median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low priced sales.

The trend line for home prices rose over the 6-month snapshots we've been reviewing. The median selling price for a home in March of 2021 was $975,000. The average of the monthly medians for the 6-month period was $909,500. But wait, there's more. The median selling price in September of 2020 was $779,500 and the next month the median was $880,000. That was an increase of over $100K! Selling prices rose almost another $100,000 during the next 6-month period. Just imagine what it was like for buyers who were preapproved for a loan at $800,000 during that time.

This March the median selling price was up to $1,128,396. As of today, there were only 22 homes on Maui priced under $1,000,000.

As with other data points, condos are more dramatic. For the 6 months ending in March of 2021, the median was just under $582,000 and oddly, the median selling price for the month 6 months earlier was $581,000. The prices even dropped a little for the next 5 months, but in March of 2021, the median price went to $645,000.

It has gone nowhere but up since then. The median selling price for March this year hit an even $800,000. Interestingly, if you look at the trend you can see that October's median was a fairly pedestrian $672,500 and stayed in the low $700's through February.

______________________________________

DAYS ON MARKET: avg-sold listings

The days on market (DOM) is the number of days a property has been on the market until close of escrow.

What can we say? The average days on market continues its downward trend.

It remains to be seen what affects inflation will have on the real estate market. It's been going on for months with little change in the market. Also, Russia's assault on Ukraine could have a negative effect on inflation and the supply chain. Let's hope for the sake of the Ukrainian people and the rest of the world that nightmare ends soon.

______________________________________

Get more information and details

To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com.  If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you.  As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.

 

About Aloha Group Maui

Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business.  We are in business for pleasure and profit.  We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit).  Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed.  So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.

 

Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization.  Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.  

 

Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz).  She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.

 

Copyright 2022 L. Lee Potts

Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc.  While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed.  This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes.  Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.  

 

April 11, 2022

Aina Nalu News ~ Q1 2022

Aina Nalu News

Presented by Aloha Group Maui

Issue 66, Q1 - 2022

Here we are in 2022! What a ride the past two years have been, and speaking of, if you've driven on the island in the past month or so, you know that things seem to be back to normal! The mask mandate on Maui ended March 25, and it looks like the airline mask mandate is set to expire on April 18. We suspect that will bring a few more visitors to the island.

Inventory is still the hot topic on Maui, or lack thereof as the case may be, and Aina Nalu is no exception. As soon as a unit hits the market, it is shortly under contract, usually with multiple offers that have been above asking price in many instances. Units are selling for record prices.

There are 3 units that are still pending, with one that closed at quarter's end.

As you can see, prices have increased considerably. The best comparison is probably between I201 in Q1 2022 and I203 in Q1 2021, a difference of $240,000 in just a year!

As for the real estate market overall on Maui, the inventory level is still at historically low levels, but at least it hasn't declined in the last few months. On the other hand, the market is still hot for properties in desirable areas, such as Aina Nalu. 

From January 1 to March 31 there were 10 listings and 6 closed sales. There were 0 cancelled listings, and 0 expired listings at the end of the quarter. There were 0 active listings and 4 pending sales at the end of the quarter.

 For more details on current Maui real estate prices and sales, go to the Maui Real Estate Advisor for all the stats.