By Lahaina Lee, Aloha Group Maui | July 2026 market data
Last month we made two calls. First: the condo buyers who had been circling all spring finally landed, and June's 88 closings, the most in over two years, were the proof. Second: with home pendings sitting at a twelve-month low, July home closings would cool back toward the low sixties. Well. Condos did not cool. They booked 81 more closings and nudged the median up a second straight month, to $685,000. And homes? They settled at 54, just about exactly where we predicted. Here is what the data shows, what it means, and where we hedge all over again.
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August 2026 Key Takeaways Condo closings: 81 in July, the second-best month of the past year behind June's 88. The buyers who showed up in June came back for seconds.(?) Condo prices: Median sold price rose to $685,000, a second straight monthly gain off the May low and the highest reading since February. The average crossed back over a million, to about $1.01M. Condo inventory: 870 active listings, down from 913 and the leanest since last October. Roughly 10.7 to 14 months of supply depending on which sales pace you use. Still a buyer's market, but tightening. Home sales: 54 closings, down from June's 78 and right in line with the cooldown we forecast a month ago. Home prices: Median sold price fell to $1,165,000, the lowest since November, as June's luxury mix stepped back. One month's median is not your home's value. Home supply: Inventory ticked to a fresh 12-month high of 465, but that is exactly one more home than June. Pendings rebounded to 112 from June's low of 96. |
Last month we told you the pending condo sales were the real tell, that buyers were writing offers even while the closing column looked sleepy, and that the pipeline would keep feeding closings. June proved it with 88. July backed it up with 81. Two months, 169 closed condo sales. In this market, that is a parade.
Let's do the numbers. Condos first, as always.
Condos
|
|
Aug '25 |
Sep '25 |
Oct '25 |
Nov '25 |
Dec '25 |
Jan '26 |
Feb '26 |
Mar '26 |
Apr '26 |
May '26 |
Jun '26 |
Jul '26 |
|
Sales |
57 |
45 |
61 |
50 |
75 |
44 |
64 |
74 |
70 |
51 |
88 |
81 |
|
Inventory |
849 |
842 |
833 |
890 |
904 |
918 |
909 |
911 |
931 |
902 |
913 |
870 |
|
Pending Sales |
77 |
87 |
91 |
86 |
75 |
96 |
118 |
107 |
100 |
121 |
114 |
107 |
|
Median Sales Price |
$650K |
$650K |
$614K |
$595K |
$640K |
$630K |
$848K |
$675K |
$651K |
$597K |
$625K |
$685K |
|
Avg Sales Price |
$1.14M |
$947K |
$920K |
$735K |
$1.04M |
$926K |
$1.15M |
$1.19M |
$972K |
$890K |
$854K |
$1.01M |
|
Median Asking Price |
$849K |
$823K |
$799K |
$800K |
$825K |
$849K |
$839K |
$825K |
$799K |
$799K |
$790K |
$784K |
|
Avg Asking Price |
$1.28M |
$1.26M |
$1.23M |
$1.31M |
$1.35M |
$1.37M |
$1.33M |
$1.31M |
$1.27M |
$1.26M |
$1.22M |
$1.23M |
|
Days on Mkt (active) |
154 |
154 |
154 |
153 |
154 |
160 |
166 |
172 |
170 |
170 |
170 |
179 |
|
Days on Mkt (sold) |
167 |
125 |
180 |
155 |
162 |
166 |
138 |
148 |
168 |
153 |
171 |
154 |
|
Withdrawals |
68 |
72 |
71 |
48 |
41 |
54 |
43 |
47 |
53 |
60 |
55 |
56 |
The pipeline still has water in it. Pending sales came in at 107, down from June's 114 and May's 121, but comfortably above the twelve-month average of about 98. Not another 88 sales in the tank, probably, but nothing that looks like a market rolling over either.
The number that caught my eye, though, was not sales. It was price. The median condo selling price climbed to $685,000, up from June's $625,000 and May's $597,000. Now, before anybody plants a flag: prices actually fell from April to May before they turned, so this is two months of gains off the May low, not some unbroken march higher. And I am not going to stand here and call $597,000 the bottom. We have been doing this too long to pretend anyone spots a bottom in real time. But something has shifted. Two months ago we had heavy inventory, soft closings, and a median under $600,000. Today we have back-to-back strong sales months, a median $88,000 above that low and the highest since February, and 43 fewer condos on the market than a month ago. That is not proof of a new bull market.
It is evidence that buyers have found prices they are willing to act on.
The average agrees. It jumped to $1,014,496, the first reading over a million since March, after three months parked in the $850,000 to $970,000 range. When the median and the average move up together, that is usually demand broadening across the price ladder, not one lucky penthouse dragging the math around.
Here is the part I find most interesting. As the median sold price rose, the median asking price went the other way, slipping to $783,500, another step down off the $799,000 shelf sellers camped on all year. So the gap between what sellers ask and what buyers pay narrowed to about $98,500, down from roughly $165,000 last month. For most of the past year, buyers and sellers stood on opposite sides of the room, each waiting for the other one to move. Sellers moved. Buyers appear to have answered. That is what price discovery actually looks like: not a bell ringing at the bottom, but enough sellers deciding what they will really take, and enough buyers deciding that number is worth it.
Inventory finally moved the right way, too. Active condo listings fell to 870, down from 913, a nearly 5% drop and the leanest count since last October. At July's sales pace that pencils out to about 10.7 months of supply, but let me be honest about that number, because 81 was a hot month. Use a three-month pace and it is closer to 12 months. Use the trailing year and it is about 14. So let's not kid ourselves: this is still a buyer's market, with plenty of condos for sale and buyers who still hold the choices. But two months ago that same figure was up near 18 months, and now inventory is falling while sales stay elevated. The buyer's market is not over. The capital B just got a little smaller again.
One more wrinkle. The condos that sold in July averaged 154 days on market, down from 171 in June, while the condos still sitting on the market averaged 179 days, a new high for the table. I would not read that as buyers sprinting after every fresh listing. But it does say something useful: the properties that are finding buyers are moving faster than the inventory left behind. For sellers, that is close to the whole ballgame. There is no shortage of buyers for the right condo. There may be a shortage of buyers for the wrong price, and price is the one thing a seller can actually fix.
As for the zoning question humming under all of this: Bill 88 is now law, and in early July the county's first rezoning resolutions for a batch of Kihei and West Maui properties started moving through committee. Nothing is finally rezoned, and no owner's rental clock has changed yet. We already walked through what that does and does not mean for condo owners; the a list doesn't mean rezoned distinction was covered in a recent blog and podcast, so we will not re-litigate it here.
Bottom line on condos: two strong months of closings, inventory at its leanest since October, a median up two months running, and the ask/sold gap cut nearly in half. Still a buyer's market, no question. But the number I will be watching next month is not price. It is inventory. If listings keep falling while sales hold anywhere near here, we stop talking about a two-month bounce and start talking about the early makings of a trend.
* Data collected on the 1st of the following month. July figures were collected August 1, 2026.
* Asking price data unavailable prior to August 2025.
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Key Takeaways: Condos 81 condo closings in July, the second-highest of the past year behind June's 88, and about 28% above the normal monthly pace. Two strong months back to back. Pending sales at 107, above the twelve-month average. The August pipeline stays respectable. Median selling price: $685,000, a second straight monthly gain off the May low and the highest since February. The average crossed back over $1M. 870 condos for sale, the leanest since October. Roughly 10.7 to 14 months of supply depending on the pace used. Still a buyer's market, still tightening. Median asking slipped to $784K while the median sold rose, narrowing the ask/sold gap to about $98,500 from $165,000. Watch inventory next month. Falling listings plus steady sales would turn a two-month bounce into a trend. |
Single-Family Homes
|
|
Aug '25 |
Sep '25 |
Oct '25 |
Nov '25 |
Dec '25 |
Jan '26 |
Feb '26 |
Mar '26 |
Apr '26 |
May '26 |
Jun '26 |
Jul '26 |
|
Sales |
60 |
56 |
63 |
49 |
66 |
52 |
46 |
76 |
49 |
58 |
78 |
54 |
|
Inventory |
441 |
438 |
436 |
450 |
446 |
456 |
448 |
436 |
437 |
444 |
464 |
465 |
|
Pending Sales |
108 |
109 |
101 |
104 |
96 |
120 |
134 |
110 |
119 |
108 |
96 |
112 |
|
Median Sales Price |
$1.28M |
$1.29M |
$1.23M |
$1.15M |
$1.34M |
$1.45M |
$1.25M |
$1.20M |
$1.29M |
$1.17M |
$1.36M |
$1.17M |
|
Avg Sales Price |
$1.86M |
$1.76M |
$1.52M |
$1.34M |
$1.93M |
$1.93M |
$1.37M |
$1.49M |
$1.51M |
$1.48M |
$1.85M |
$1.60M |
|
Median Asking Price |
$1.77M |
$1.70M |
$1.68M |
$1.70M |
n/a |
$1.95M |
$2.00M |
$1.95M |
$1.85M |
$1.85M |
$1.84M |
$1.80M |
|
Avg Asking Price |
$3.34M |
$3.26M |
$3.12M |
$3.16M |
$3.55M |
$3.56M |
$3.70M |
$3.71M |
$3.48M |
$3.49M |
$3.52M |
$3.63M |
|
Days on Mkt (active) |
141 |
141 |
138 |
138 |
140 |
136 |
144 |
147 |
153 |
158 |
156 |
160 |
|
Days on Mkt (sold) |
193 |
187 |
135 |
199 |
162 |
232 |
208 |
142 |
160 |
150 |
145 |
155 |
|
Withdrawals |
37 |
28 |
45 |
36 |
33 |
28 |
25 |
41 |
25 |
35 |
31 |
26 |
Now homes - where almost everything I just said about condos needs flipping over. Last month we hedged, the way we always do, and said that with home pendings at a twelve-month low of 96, July closings would cool back toward the historical norm around 60. We do not get to say this often, so indulge us: we nailed it. July delivered 54 closed home sales, down from June's 78 and right in the neighborhood we called. The best sales month of the year, followed by one of the quieter ones. That is Maui's thin market doing what it does, lurching rather than gliding.
The price line whipsawed right along with it. June's median jumped to $1,356,975 on a wave of luxury closings. July's fell to $1,165,000, the lowest since November. That is a drop of almost $192,000 in a single month, roughly 14%. So did Maui homes shed 14% of their value in thirty days? Of course not, and this is exactly why I keep begging people not to price their house off one month's median. Maui is a small market. Change the mix of what sells, especially at the top, and the median lurches with it. June probably made homes look stronger than they were. July probably makes them look weaker. The truth sits somewhere in the middle. The average told the same story, easing to $1,600,625 from June's $1.85 million.
The supply number needs that same context. At 465 active listings, home inventory ticked to a fresh twelve-month high, and at July's slower pace that works out to about 8.6 months of supply, up from June's tidy 5.9. Before anyone panics, look underneath it. Inventory went from 464 to 465. One house. The supply number jumped because closings fell, not because listings flooded in. Normalize the pace and it reads a lot calmer: about 7.3 months on a three-month basis, 7.9 on the year. Those probably describe the real market better than either June's 5.9 or July's 8.6 taken alone.
And then there are the pendings, which is where it gets interesting. They had slipped to 96 in June, which is why we expected July to cool. It did. But in July they bounced right back to 112, a hair above the twelve-month average of about 110. If July had handed us 54 closings and another drop in pendings, I would be a good deal more worried. Instead this reads like a thin market being a thin market: one strong month, one soft one, with the property mix doing the rest. I am not going to promise you August roars back, because pendings are a preview, not a receipt. But 112 is not the shape of a market rolling over.
Days on market for active home listings crept to 160, a new high, and days for solds ticked to 155. On the asking side, the median eased to $1.80 million and the average firmed to $3.63 million, the luxury end still doing its slow, unhurried dance, the way luxury does everything except drop its price. None of it changes the shape of the market. It just confirms July took a breather.
Bottom line on homes: June overstated the strength, July probably understates it, and the honest read sits between the two. Closings cooled exactly as we warned, the median gave back June's luxury bump, and supply looks softer mostly because sales fell. But with pendings back to 112, this looks more like a pause than a pivot. Let's see what those 112 do.
* Data collected on the 1st of the following month. July figures were collected August 1, 2026.
* Asking price data unavailable prior to August 2025; December '25 median asking price unavailable.
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Key Takeaways: Homes 54 home closings in July, down from June's 78 and right in line with the cooldown we forecast. Median selling price: $1,165,000, the lowest since November, a drop of about $192,000 (roughly 14%) as June's luxury closings stepped back. One month's median is not your home's value. Inventory at a fresh 12-month high of 465, but that is one more home than June. Normalized supply is closer to 7.3 to 7.9 months than July's headline 8.6. Pending sales rebounded to 112 from June's low of 96, a hair above the twelve-month average. Not the shape of a market rolling over. Days on market for active listings rose to 160, a new high for the year. |
A Quick Word on Land
Seven vacant-land parcels closed in July against 209 active listings, which ties April for the most all year. The median sale price leapt from June's $309,000 all the way to $628,300. Did Maui land double in value in thirty days? No. Seven sales happened. That is land, where the median goes wherever the handful of closings happen to send it. It stays what it always is: a thin, patient market you measure in seasons, not months. Buyers with vision and a long fuse will still find sellers out there ready to talk story, but do not try to draw a trend line through numbers this small.
Our Take
July was the month the condo and home markets swapped roles.
For most of the past year, homes were the steady part of this market and condos carried the uncertainty. This month the direction of travel flipped. Condos gave us two unusually strong sales months, falling inventory, a median up for a second month, and, maybe most telling, asking prices still drifting down while selling prices climbed. That is buyers and sellers inching toward agreement on what these things are worth. Homes handed us the opposite lesson. June's monster month and $1.36 million median looked powerful; July's 54 sales and $1.165 million median looked weak. Neither month tells the whole story, and that is exactly the point.
Which brings me to the thing I say every month, because it never stops being true. There is no single "Maui real estate market." Homes and condos are moving in different directions right now. West Maui is not South Maui. A vacation-rental condo is not a long-term residential one. And inside the very same building, the well-priced unit and the one still priced for a market that left town are having completely different summers. Our job is not to tell you whether "the Maui market" is up or down. It is to help you read the small slice of it that actually touches you.
So: condo buyers still have choices and real leverage, but two months of firming prices are a fair reminder that a good opportunity does not necessarily get better forever. Condo sellers, the market is rewarding realism, so bring some. Home buyers and sellers, do not let June or July's headline number fool you in either direction. This is a thin market where the mix can make one month look nothing like the next.
For condos, it is still a buyer's market, but the numbers leaned the same way two months running; prices do not rise while inventory falls purely by luck at the same time the ask/sold gap closes. For homes, we are between innings, waiting on 112 pendings to tell us which way August breaks. Either way, the same thing we said last month still holds: the most expensive thing you can do in a market like this is wait without information.
Let's Talk Story
If you have questions about your property's value, what these numbers mean for your situation, or whether this market is your moment to make a move, reach out anytime. We're here as a resource for the Lahaina and Maui community, whether you're ready to act or just trying to make sense of the headlines. No pressure, no agenda, just a conversation.
And if you or someone you know is thinking about buying, selling, or simply keeping track of Maui's real estate market, we've got a fabulous team of seasoned, well-trained agents standing by to help.
You can search every property listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com, or email me directly at lee@alohapotts.com. I answer every one.
From the greatest island on Earth, I'm Lahaina Lee, saying ALOHA.
