Maui Real Estate Advisor

April 2026

 

The Maui real estate market in April 2026 is sending mixed but meaningful signals: condo inventory is at historic highs and firmly in buyer’s market territory, while single-family home sales just posted their strongest month in two years and supply is tightening. Against that backdrop, the Lahaina rebuild remains frustratingly slow, Bill 9 continues to cast uncertainty over the short-term rental condo market, and tourism — though not fully recovered to 2019 levels — is attracting a higher-spending visitor than ever before. Here is what the data shows, what it means, and what we’re watching.

April 2026 — Key Takeaways

  • Condo market: 12+ months of inventory — one of the strongest buyer’s markets in years, with 911 units available and median prices holding at $675K.
  • Home market: 76 closings in March, the highest in 24+ months; inventory down to 5.7 months of supply, approaching a balanced market.
  • Lahaina rebuild: 181 structures completed, ~1,100 in the pipeline — but more than 1,100 properties have yet to start.
  • Bill 9: Still unresolved. No clear timeline, no final ruling on H3/H4 zoning, and litigation expected. Uncertainty is suppressing condo buyer confidence.
  • Tourism: Visitor arrivals up 7% year-over-year in 2025, but still 23–25% below 2019 levels. Spending is up — Maui is drawing a higher-end visitor.
  • For buyers: the condo market offers leverage and selection; the home market may be narrowing faster than most expect.

 

I think maybe Madame Pele must be a little cranky with us.

After the fires of 2023 and the political and financial fallout from Bill 9, our visitors were cautiously returning. That was the good news. Then March decided to throw two Kona Lows at us back to back. A Kona Low is a slow-moving storm system that brings heavy rain and high surf — and if you’ve never heard of one, you’re not alone. The county, the hotels, the condos, and the residents recovered and were back to full operations fairly quickly. It wasn’t a great stretch for our visitor industry, but most of our guests stayed in good spirits and showed real aloha. We need them right now, and they showed up for us.

We’ll look at how tourism is tracking a little further down in the report. But first, I want to start where I always start these days — Lahaina.

 

Lahaina Rebuild Update

Lahaina is still the story. And I’ll be honest — I’m a little afraid it’s starting to feel like an old story, even to some of our government officials who may be growing tired of hearing about it.

We are now well over two years removed from the fires. From a distance, things can look like they’re moving along — and to be fair, there is visible progress. Homes are going up. Some families are coming back. Every month there’s a county meeting where we hear about how much is being accomplished.

But for those of us on the ground — people who used to live in Lahaina, or West Siders who love that town — the pace feels stupid slow. Especially when it comes to commercial rebuilding and Front Street.

Californians are loudly frustrated about how long Pacific Palisades and Altadena are taking to rebuild. California’s governor cut through the red tape and told people to get going. Meanwhile, our property owners — some of them local families whose entire livelihood depended on commercial tenant rent — are still stuck in the permitting process. After community meetings on rebuilding the Lahaina commercial corridor, the county and their consultants came back and told us: you can’t build on the ocean side. Even though plenty of property owners are willing to take that risk.

Where are our leaders?

Where We Actually Stand

Just a reminder of the scale of what happened: we lost 2,200 properties in the burn zone.

As of April 6th, 181 structures have been completed, 568 permits have been issued, and 352 are currently being processed. That’s roughly 1,100 properties somewhere in the pipeline — which means there are still more than 1,100 property owners who haven’t started, can’t start, or — and this is the part that keeps me up at night — may have already given up.

For those of you considering Maui real estate, this matters beyond the human dimension. The pace of Lahaina’s commercial recovery directly affects property values, short-term rental demand, and the character of the island you’re buying into. A revitalized Front Street changes the investment calculus. The longer that rebuild stalls, the longer that upside stays off the table.

Lahaina is still the story. We can’t afford to let it become background noise.

 

Key Takeaways

  • 2,200 properties were lost in the Lahaina fire zone.
  • As of April 6: 181 completed, 568 permits issued, 352 in process — roughly 1,100 in the pipeline.
  • More than 1,100 properties have yet to enter the permitting process.
  • Commercial rebuilding and Front Street remain the biggest gaps — permitting restrictions on ocean-side construction are a key bottleneck.
  • The pace of Lahaina’s recovery has direct implications for property values and rental demand across West Maui.

 

Tourism Update: Better… But Not Back

Let’s shift to tourism, because this ties directly into real estate — especially condos and anything short-term rental related. And this is one where the headlines can mislead you if you don’t look closely.

Maui Tourism: Then vs. Now

 

Metric

2019 Baseline

2025 / Early 2026

What It Means

Visitor Arrivals

~3.0 million

~2.5 million

Still below pre-COVID levels

Visitor Spending

~$5.3B

~$5.8–6.0B

Higher spend per visitor

Daily Visitor Count

Baseline

~15–25% lower

Fewer people on island

Hotel Occupancy

~80%+

~71%

Hotels largely recovered

Condo Occupancy

~75–80%

~60–70%

Still lagging meaningfully

Avg Daily Rate (ADR)

Baseline

Above 2019

Rates holding strong

Condo RevPAR

Strong

Uneven

Rate up, occupancy down

 

The top-line numbers are encouraging. Maui welcomed about 2.5 million visitors in 2025, up roughly 7% from 2024. Visitor spending came in at just under $6 billion, up more than 12%. Hotel occupancy climbed to around 71% in early 2026, a meaningful improvement from the year prior. On the surface, that sounds pretty good — and compared to where we were right after the fires, it is.

But we always come back to 2019, because that’s the last normal year. And when you hold today’s numbers up against that baseline, the picture changes. Through mid-2025, Maui was still running roughly 23 to 25 percent below pre-pandemic visitor volume. Daily counts remain well short of what we were used to before everything happened.

So yes — we’re improving. We’re not fully recovered.

Compared to the rest of the state, Maui is actually growing faster than Oahu, Kauai, and the Big Island — but that’s partly because we’re coming off a lower base. The recovery phase makes the growth numbers look stronger than they might otherwise. Context matters.

The most important trend in the data — the one I want you to pay attention to — is this: fewer visitors, but significantly more spending per visitor. Statewide, total visitor spending has held up or grown even when arrivals are down. The traveler coming to Maui right now skews wealthier, spends more per day, and stays a similar length of time. We have a higher-end visitor.

What This Means If You Own or Are Considering a Condo

 

Factor

2019

Today

Real-World Impact

Occupancy

Strong, consistent

Lower, more variable

More gaps between bookings

Nightly Rates (ADR)

Solid

Higher

Helps — but not enough alone

Gross Revenue

Predictable

Uneven

Good months and slow months

Insurance Costs

Manageable

Significantly higher

Major hit to net income

AOAO Fees

Stable

Rising

Higher carrying costs

Net Income

Relatively stable

Compressed

Less margin for error

Buyer Sentiment

Confident

Cautious

Slower decisions

 

For those of you running the numbers on a vacation rental, this is directly relevant to your assumptions. The guest profile coming to Maui right now tends to support higher nightly rates and stronger revenue per booking — even if total visitor volume hasn’t fully bounced back. Fewer guests doesn’t necessarily mean less income. It can mean better guests.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Maui saw ~2.5 million visitors in 2025, up 7% from 2024 — but still 23–25% below 2019 levels.
  • Visitor spending reached ~$6 billion, up 12%+ — the highest-spending visitor profile in Maui’s history.
  • Hotel occupancy is at ~71%; condo occupancy lags at ~60–70%.
  • Maui is recovering faster than Oahu, Kauai, and the Big Island — but off a lower post-fire baseline.
  • The shift to fewer, higher-spending visitors supports stronger nightly rental rates, even as overall volume remains below pre-pandemic levels.

 

Bill 9 Update: Uncertainty Is Still the Story

This is where everything starts to connect.

Take a condo market that already has lower occupancy than 2019, higher operating costs, and more variability in rental income. Now layer in unresolved policy risk. That combination — soft fundamentals plus an unclear regulatory future — is precisely why the condo market has been so sluggish, and why it’s likely to stay that way until there’s more clarity.

Where Things Stand

Bill 9 is still working its way through the process, and the intent hasn’t changed: to phase out short-term rental use in all apartment-zoned condo complexes over time. Not some. All.

What has changed — or at least evolved — is the conversation around implementation. There’s been movement on proposed hotel zoning categories, H3 and H4, which could potentially allow certain properties to continue operating as short-term rentals. But the Planning Commission did not recommend approval, the County Council is still working through it, and legal challenges are widely expected. As of today, there is no clear final outcome. There is only uncertainty, and uncertainty has a cost.

What the Market Is Reacting To

From a real estate standpoint, this is what actually matters to buyers and sellers right now: no clear timeline, no clear resolution, and real litigation risk on the horizon. That combination is enough to slow decision-making on its own — even before you factor in cap rates, financing, or rental income projections.

Buyers who are looking at condos as investment properties — which is most of our audience — are understandably cautious. Income projections are more conservative than they were two years ago. Some buyers are sitting on the sidelines entirely, waiting to see how this resolves before committing.

On the seller side, the picture is mixed. Some have adjusted their expectations and are pricing to reflect the uncertainty. Others are still holding out for a different outcome — hoping the H3/H4 pathway opens up, or that litigation shifts the landscape. That gap in expectations between buyers and sellers is part of what’s keeping transaction volume depressed.

Bill 9 isn’t just about what ultimately happens. It’s about when — and how clearly — it happens. Right now, neither of those questions has an answer.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Bill 9 proposes phasing out short-term rental use in all apartment-zoned condo complexes on Maui.
  • H3 and H4 hotel zoning categories could offer a pathway for some properties — but the Planning Commission did not recommend approval and the County Council has not acted.
  • Legal challenges are widely expected, adding further timeline uncertainty.
  • Buyer income projections are more conservative; some buyers are sitting out entirely until there is clarity.
  • The expectation gap between sellers (many still holding firm) and cautious buyers is a primary driver of low condo transaction volume.

 

Maui Real Estate Market Update — April 2026

Condos

Condo sales have been in a slump for roughly two years — April 2024 was the last time we saw monthly closings above 100. Since then, the market has been grinding along at a discouraging pace. January of this year hit the floor at just 44 sales. The two months that followed showed a genuine, if modest, recovery: 64 closings in February, 74 in March. That’s real progress, and we’ll take it.

But context matters. Even with that improvement, we’re sitting at over 12 months of inventory — firmly in buyer’s market territory. For anyone who has been watching from the mainland, that number should get your attention. If you’ve been considering a vacation rental condo on Maui, you have negotiating leverage right now that hasn’t existed in years.

Inventory tells the other side of the story. Back in April 2024, there were 518 condos on the market. We haven’t seen a number in the 500s since. From December 2025 onward, inventory has been locked above 900 units, closing March at 911. Supply is not the problem for buyers.

Pending sales — our leading indicator — slipped from 118 in February to 107 in March. We don’t love seeing that move, but 107 is still the second-highest pending total over the past 12 months, so we’re inclined to read it as a mild caution rather than a red flag. That said, it does suggest that the actual number of closings could soften over the next month or two.

On price: after a notable spike in median selling price in February, March came back to earth at $675,000. That’s essentially the 12-month median, which tells us that — for now — properties are holding their value at this level. The average selling price rose to $1,185,000, maintaining a position above $1 million for three of the last four months. Asking prices remain well above that, with the median asking price at $825,000 and the average above $1.3 million.

What the data is showing us right now looks like momentary stability. Prices are holding, but the structural imbalance hasn’t changed. With over 12 months of supply still on the market, sellers are competing hard for a limited pool of buyers. For buyers, that’s exactly the environment worth acting in.

Bottom line on condos: it’s a buyer’s market with a capital B — and for those of you looking at vacation rental opportunities, the selection has never been better.

 

 

Apr '25

May '25

Jun '25

Jul '25

Aug '25

Sep '25

Oct '25

Nov '25

Dec '25

Jan '26

Feb '26

Mar '26

Sales

64

64

56

53

57

45

61

50

75

44

64

74

Inventory

900

875

872

863

849

842

833

890

904

918

909

911

Pending Sales

89

84

80

79

77

87

91

86

75

96

118

107

Median Sales Price

$727K

$763K

$700K

$675K

$650K

$650K

$614K

$595K

$640K

$630K

$848K

$675K

Avg Sales Price

$1.24M

$1.09M

$1.31M

$911K

$1.14M

$947K

$920K

$735K

$1.04M

$926K

$1.15M

$1.19M

Median Asking Price

—

—

—

—

$849K

$823K

$799K

$800K

$825K

$849K

$839K

$825K

Avg Asking Price

—

—

—

—

$1.28M

$1.26M

$1.23M

$1.31M

$1.35M

$1.37M

$1.33M

$1.31M

 

* Data collected on the 1st of the following month. March figures were collected April 1, 2026.

* Asking price data unavailable prior to August 2025.

 

Key Takeaways

  • 74 condo closings in March — up from a low of 44 in January, continuing a modest recovery.
  • 911 condos currently for sale — more than 12 months of inventory, firmly a buyer’s market.
  • Median selling price: $675,000, consistent with the 12-month median — prices are holding.
  • Average selling price: $1,185,000 — above $1M for three of the last four months.
  • Pending sales dipped from 118 to 107 — a caution flag, but still the second-highest total in 12 months.
  • Median asking price $825K; average asking price $1.31M — sellers asking well above where deals are closing.

 

Single-Family Homes

Let’s lead with the headline: 76 homes closed in March — the highest single-month total in over two years. To put that in perspective, the average has been roughly 60 closings per month over the past 24 months. February was paltry at 46. March was a significant rebound, and it’s worth sitting with that number for a moment before we qualify it.

Here’s where it gets interesting for buyers. Inventory declined for the third consecutive month, dropping to 436 homes. That gives us just 5.7 months of supply — which, when you look at the market as a whole, is the threshold for a balanced market. After two-plus years of buyer-favorable conditions, the ground is starting to shift. If you’ve been watching the Maui home market from the sidelines, this is the kind of signal worth paying attention to.

Pending sales came in at 110 for March, down from a strong 134 in February.* That’s slightly below the 24-month average run rate of 118, though it’s right on target for the past 12 months. We’d watch this number closely over the next couple of months — a continued decline would suggest the March sales surge may not fully repeat.

Now for the price story, which is where things get nuanced. The median selling price for homes fell to just over $1.2 million in March. In 2025, that number held consistently around $1.3 million. That drop is meaningful — and we think it may actually be part of what’s driving the inventory balance we’re seeing. When prices come down to a level where more buyers can transact, the market finds its footing. The math works itself out.

The average selling price came in at just under $1.5 million — higher than February — though that figure may be skewed by a thin upper end. There was only one sale above $4 million in March, which tends to pull the average down. Meanwhile, average asking prices have climbed from around $3.3 million last August to $3.7 million today, even as median selling prices have fallen. That widening gap between what sellers are asking and what the market is delivering is a dynamic worth watching — and for well-capitalized buyers, it can represent real opportunity at the negotiating table.

The median asking price for a home stands at $1,950,000 with the average above $3.7 million. Asking prices have remained relatively stable, but they continue to sit well above where deals are actually getting done.

Bottom line on homes: March was the strongest sales month in two years, inventory is tightening, and for the first time in a while, this market is approaching balance. If you’ve been waiting for a sign that the window may be narrowing — this is it.

 

 

Apr '25

May '25

Jun '25

Jul '25

Aug '25

Sep '25

Oct '25

Nov '25

Dec '25

Jan '26

Feb '26

Mar '26

Sales

69

55

66

60

60

56

63

49

66

52

46

76

Inventory

429

435

438

439

441

438

436

450

446

456

448

436

Pending Sales

121

120

105

112

108

109

101

104

96

120

134

110

Median Sales Price

$1.38M

$1.30M

$1.32M

$1.32M

$1.28M

$1.29M

$1.23M

$1.15M

$1.34M

$1.45M

$1.25M

$1.20M

Avg Sales Price

$1.85M

$1.55M

$2.22M

$1.65M

$1.86M

$1.76M

$1.52M

$1.34M

$1.93M

$1.93M

$1.37M

$1.49M

Median Asking Price

—

—

—

—

$1.77M

$1.70M

$1.68M

$1.70M

—

$1.95M

$2.00M

$1.95M

Avg Asking Price

—

—

—

—

$3.34M

$3.26M

$3.12M

$3.16M

$3.55M

$3.56M

$3.70M

$3.71M

 

* Data collected on the 1st of the following month. March figures were collected April 1, 2026.

* Asking price data unavailable prior to August 2025.

* Pending sales declined from 134 in February to 110 in March. While we don’t like to see that drop, February’s 134 was the highest pending total in over 12 months. The March figure remains close to the 12-month average and is not yet a cause for concern.

 

Key Takeaways

  • 76 single-family home closings in March — the highest monthly total in more than 24 months.
  • Inventory fell to 436 homes — 5.7 months of supply, at the threshold of a balanced market.
  • Median selling price: $1.20M, down from the 2025 average of ~$1.3M — lower prices may be driving the sales acceleration.
  • Average selling price: $1.49M — note: upper-end activity was thin (only one sale above $4M).
  • Average asking price has risen to $3.71M while median selling prices have fallen — a widening gap that represents potential opportunity for well-capitalized buyers.
  • Pending sales dipped to 110 from 134 in February — worth watching over the next two months.

 

Our Take

Maui is a place that earns your patience — and April 2026 is a good example of why that patience matters.

The Lahaina rebuild is moving too slowly, and the frustration is real and legitimate. But homes are going up, families are returning, and the pressure on our leaders to move faster is not going away. Front Street will come back. The question is when, not if — and that timing has real implications for property values in West Maui.

Tourism is on the right trajectory. The visitor we’re seeing today — fewer in number, higher in spending — is actually a better fit for the kind of island experience Maui has always been best at delivering. For vacation rental owners, that profile supports stronger nightly rates even as overall volume recovers.

Bill 9 remains the wild card. Until there’s a clear resolution — on timeline, on the H3/H4 pathway, or through the courts — it will continue to act as a drag on condo market confidence. But uncertainty cuts both ways. Buyers who do their homework, work with the right advisors, and understand which properties and zoning categories carry real risk versus manageable risk may find that this is exactly the kind of market worth moving in.

On the market data itself: condos remain deeply in buyer’s market territory, with more inventory and more leverage than we’ve seen in years. Homes are a different story — inventory is tightening, sales are accelerating, and the window for buyer-favorable conditions may be narrowing faster than most people expect.

For condos, it’s a buyer’s market with a capital B. For homes, the ground is starting to shift. Either way, the most expensive thing you can do right now is wait without information.

If you’ve been watching from the mainland and wondering whether it’s time to have a real conversation about Maui real estate, we’d love to talk story. No pressure, no agenda — just a conversation. Reach out anytime. That’s what we’re here for.