Aloha from Lahaina Lee
Maui Real Estate Advisor ~ November 2024 Edition
__________________________________________
Aloha Ya'll,
November has arrived, bringing its usual mix of gratitude, reflection, and an excuse to eat pie for breakfast. First off, a big mahalo to all veterans and members of the armed services. Your dedication and sacrifice are appreciated more than a sunrise over Haleakala. And let's not forget, it's alos American Indian Heritage Month. Fun fact: many indigenous people and folks of all backgrounds have proudly served in the military. Speaking of service, my grandson, Kevin, has just enlisted in the Navy. Congratulations, Kevin! Now don't forget to write.
__________________________________________
Recover Update: What's the Plan for Lahaina?
Last month, I mentioned the long-awaited draft plan for Lahaina's future. At the time, we were promised it would drop "during the fall." well, good news - it finally arrived! You can check it out at MauiRecovers.org, your one-stop shop for official recovery updates.
The draft outlines 40 projects, covering everything from water management to a business park (because who doesn't love a good business park?). But here's the kicker: the section titled "Rebuild Lahaina Projects" doesn't actually mention rebuilding homes, condos, or commercial spaces. The official stance? "We want more input."
Well, here's some input: the people of Lahaina don't need more brainstorming sessions or bureaucratic yoga. We need shovels in the ground and keys in doors - yesterday.
__________________________________________
Local Businesses: Surviving Against the Odds
While we wait for progress to crawl forward, local businesses are doing what they do best - making it work. Some have relocated, others have popped up wherever they can, like coconuts after a storm. Tourism, the lifeblood of Maui's economy, has taken a bit hit. Visitor numbers are down about 25%, according to the Hawaii Tourism Authority, but if you ask local business owners, it feels closer to 50%. Either way, it's a tough time to be in paradise.
__________________________________________
Real Estate Snapshot: October 2024
Condos: Let's take a trip down memory lane to 2019, the last "normal" year. Back then, 129 condos sold in October. Last month? Only 64 - half the number. Inventory has dipped since. A comparison of real estate in 2019 to today's numbers, really bears out the sentiment of our local entrepreneurs.
And while my crystal ball suggest that we are turning a corner and improvements is eminent, it's going to be slow.
Pending sales don't really indicate improvement, but they have been consistent for the last three months finishing October with 75. We would like to see that number continue, but early November is looking terribly strong.
On the supply side inventory looks like it peaked back in August. It dropped under 700 condos for sale in October. However, even with that decline, we still have over 10 months of inventory.
If you are a bargain hunter, there are currently over 100 properties for sale at $500,000 or less. A $500,000 condo on Maui sounds like a bargain.
There was little change in the average selling price of a condo, and the median selling price dropped below $900,000 again so there are some good values out there.
With higher inventory, stable to declining prices, and motivated sellers, the Maui condo market tilts decidedly in favor of buyers at this time.
Homes: In October of 2019, 102 homes sold. Last month? 51. Are you sensing a theme here? Inventory has stayed steady at around 6.5 months of supply. The median selling price has dropped to $1.3 million, but the median asking price stubbornly clings to $2 million. It's a bit like trying to sell coconuts for diamonds - not exactly a match.
Once again, testing the sentiment of our local business owners, when we look at 2019 homes they are spot on. In 2019 there were 102 homes sold on Maui. What is 50% of that? You are correct, 51, exactly the number of homes sold in each of the last 2 months.
With a current inventory level of 332, we have about 6.5 months of supply. Inventory has remained very stable since June, as have sales.
Pending sales did get back up to the 130's with 132 in October, so perhaps the sales level will trend up as well.
However, in early November, we're seeing inventory trend up a little bit, pendings are trending down a little bit, and we still see a mismatch between the price of homes for sale compared to the price of homes that are selling.
The median selling price for a home on Maui dropped back to 1.3 million, matching the median selling price in May. But the median asking price for a home on Maui is still at $2 million with the average asking price over $3.6 million.
__________________________________________
A Call to Visitors: Maui Needs You
Here's the bottom line: Maui's economy thrives on tourism. Sure, not every visitor is perfect (looking at you, sunscreen-on-the-coral crowd), but the vast majority are respectful and much needed. If you've been on the fence about visiting, consider this your official invitation. We miss you. The palm trees are still green, the ocean is still blue, and the temperatures are still a breezy 80-something. What are you waiting for?
__________________________________________
Final Thoughts
That's the latest on Lahaina's recovery, the economy, and the real estate market. Got questions or comments? Drop them below - I'd love to hear from you. And remember, whether you're near or far, Maui always has a little aloha waiting for you.
Until next time, this is Lahaina Lee saying Aloooha with a smile and a wave. Mahalo for your support, and I hope to see you here soon.
Warmly,
Lahaina Lee
