By Lahaina Lee, Aloha Group Maui | August 2026 market data
Prefer to listen? This report is also an episode of the Maui Real Estate Advisor podcast.
Last month we told you to stop watching condo prices and start watching inventory. If listings kept falling while sales held anywhere near their pace, we said, a two-month bounce would start to look like the early makings of a trend. Well. Condo inventory fell again, to 830, the leanest count in more than a year, and sales held above their normal pace at 68. On the two numbers we told you to watch, the trend held. And yet the median condo price fell off the table, to $564,950, the lowest reading I've seen in more than five years. Both of those are true at the same time, and untangling how is most of this month's story. On the home side, the 112 pending sales we were waiting on converted into a modest rebound: 64 closings, a touch above the usual pace. Here is what the data shows, what it means, and where we hedge.
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September 2026 Key Takeaways Condo closings: 68 in August, down from July's 81 and a second straight step down from June's two-year high, but still running about 6% above the 12-month pace of roughly 64. Buyers eased off the gas without leaving the lot. Condo prices: Median sold price fell to $564,950, the lowest since February 2021, down about $120,000 from July. Before anyone panics: the average fell far less, inventory dropped, and sales stayed above normal. This is a mix shift toward the affordable end, not condos losing value. Condo inventory: 830 active listings, down from 870 and the leanest count in more than a year. Roughly 10.5 to 13 months of supply depending on the pace you use. Still a buyer's market, still tightening. Condo pendings: 114, up from 107 and the third-highest reading of the past year. The pipeline refilled. Home sales: 64 closings, up from July's 54 as the 112 pendings we flagged converted. A touch above the normal pace. Home prices: Median firmed to $1,200,000 while the average eased to about $1.47M, the luxury end stepping back again. Two different mixes, two different readings. Home supply: Inventory at a fresh 12-month high of 470, but that is just five more than July. Normalized supply sits near 7 to 8 months. The caution: home pendings slipped to a 12-month low of 94. |
Two months ago the condo market handed us its best closing month in over two years. Then it stepped down to 81. Now 68. That looks like a slowdown, and in one narrow sense it is. But 68 sales is still above the trailing twelve-month average of about 64; condo inventory just fell to its lowest count in more than a year, and pending sales ticked back up to 114. So before we write the obituary, let's do the numbers. Condos first, as always.
Condos
|
|
Sep '25 |
Oct '25 |
Nov '25 |
Dec '25 |
Jan '26 |
Feb '26 |
Mar '26 |
Apr '26 |
May '26 |
Jun '26 |
Jul '26 |
Aug '26 |
|
Sales |
45 |
61 |
50 |
75 |
44 |
64 |
74 |
70 |
51 |
88 |
81 |
68 |
|
Inventory |
842 |
833 |
890 |
904 |
918 |
909 |
911 |
931 |
902 |
913 |
870 |
830 |
|
Pending Sales |
87 |
91 |
86 |
75 |
96 |
118 |
107 |
100 |
121 |
114 |
107 |
114 |
|
Median Sales Price |
$650K |
$614K |
$595K |
$640K |
$630K |
$848K |
$675K |
$651K |
$597K |
$625K |
$685K |
$565K |
|
Avg Sales Price |
$947K |
$920K |
$735K |
$1.04M |
$926K |
$1.15M |
$1.19M |
$972K |
$890K |
$854K |
$1.01M |
$893K |
|
Median Asking Price |
$823K |
$799K |
$800K |
$825K |
$849K |
$839K |
$825K |
$799K |
$799K |
$790K |
$784K |
$750K |
|
Avg Asking Price |
$1.26M |
$1.23M |
$1.31M |
$1.35M |
$1.37M |
$1.33M |
$1.31M |
$1.27M |
$1.26M |
$1.22M |
$1.23M |
$1.18M |
|
Days on Mkt (active) |
154 |
154 |
153 |
154 |
160 |
166 |
172 |
170 |
170 |
170 |
179 |
181 |
|
Days on Mkt (sold) |
125 |
180 |
155 |
162 |
166 |
138 |
148 |
168 |
153 |
171 |
154 |
170 |
|
Withdrawals |
72 |
71 |
48 |
41 |
54 |
43 |
47 |
53 |
60 |
55 |
56 |
54 |
Start with the number everyone will react to first, because it is the scary one. The median condo selling price fell to $564,950. That is down from $685,000 in July, a drop of about $120,000, roughly 18% in a single month, and it is the lowest median condo price we have recorded since February 2021, more than five years back, under even May's $597,000 and last November's $595,000. So Maui condos lost a fifth of their value in thirty days, right?
No. And this is the single most important paragraph I will write all month, so stay with me.
The median is just the price of the one condo standing in the exact middle of the line. It tells you what the middle sale was, not what any particular condo is worth. Picture the Saturday swap meet in Kahului. Last month plenty of shoppers were working the pricier tables. This month a crowd showed up for the cheap sunglasses, and suddenly the item sitting in the middle of everyone's basket is a lot cheaper, even though not one vendor lowered a price. That is what happened to the condo median in August. The mix of what sold shifted toward the affordable end.
How do I know it is the mix and not the market? Two tells. First, the average sold price fell only to $893,000 from July's $1.01M, about 12%, meaningfully less than the median's 18%. When the median falls harder than the average, that is the fingerprint of the mix sliding down the price ladder, more entry-level units trading hands, not every unit repricing. Second, and this is the one that matters most: a market actually losing value looks like swelling inventory and shrinking sales. August was the opposite. Inventory fell. Sales stayed above normal. Pendings rose. That is not a market in retreat. That is a market where the affordable end did the buying.
Now the sales themselves. 68 closed condo sales in August, down from July's 81 and June's 88. So yes, closings have stepped down two months running from that June peak. But 68 is still about 6% above the trailing twelve-month average of roughly 64, which means the buyers did not vanish when the calendar flipped. They just came back a little less hungry than in June. Two big months were always going to be followed by something more ordinary, and ordinary here still beats the year's average.
The pipeline agrees. Pending sales climbed back to 114, up from 107 in July and comfortably above the twelve-month average of about 101. That is not the pending count of a market rolling over. It is the third-highest reading of the past year. September closings have plenty to draw on.
And then there is the number I told you last month to watch: inventory. It fell again, to 830 active condo listings, down from 870 in July and 913 in June, and it is now the leanest count anywhere in this table, a hair under last October's 833. Two months ago we had more than 900 condos for sale and a median under $600,000. Today we have 830 and, yes, a median under $600,000 again, but for a very different reason. The count of condos for sale is the cleanest signal on this page, and it keeps pointing the same direction: down.
Let's take a closer look at months of supply, because it is noisier than it looks. At the August sales pace, 830 listings pencils out to about 12 months. But August was a cooler sales month, so dividing by that slower pace pushes the number higher than the market really feels. Use the last three months and it is closer to 10.5. Use the trailing year and it is near 13. Pick your poison; the answer is the same. This is still a buyer's market, with plenty of choice and buyers who still hold the cards. It is just a buyer's market with less on the shelf than it has had all year.
A word for sellers hiding in that data. The median asking price on active listings slipped again, to $750,000, another step down off the $799,000 shelf sellers camped on for most of the year. Sellers are still cutting. Meanwhile the condos that actually sold in August averaged 170 days on market, while the ones still sitting there averaged a new-high 181 days. That's a long time, folks. The message has not changed since last month: there is no shortage of buyers for the right condo at the right price. There is a shortage of buyers for the wrong price, and price is the one lever you actually control.
On the zoning question still humming under all of this: Bill 88 is law, and the county's rezoning process continued grinding through committee over the summer. Nothing is finally rezoned, and no owner's rental clock has changed. We already walked through what a list does and does not mean for condo owners in a recent blog and companion podcast, so we will not re-litigate it here.
Bottom line on condos: closings cooled for a second month but stayed above average, pendings refilled to 114, and inventory fell to its lowest count in more than a year. The median dropped to a multi-year low of $564,950, its weakest since February 2021, but that is the mix moving toward the affordable end, not condos shedding value. Last month I said to watch inventory. It fell again while sales held. The two-month bounce is starting to look like something sturdier, even as the price line takes a breather.
* Data collected on the 1st of the following month. August figures were collected September 1, 2026.
* Asking price data unavailable prior to August 2025.
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Key Takeaways: Condos 68 condo closings in August, a second straight step down from June's two-year high but still about 6% above the twelve-month pace of roughly 64. Median sold price fell to $564,950, the lowest since February 2021. The average fell far less, a classic sign of a mix shift toward the affordable end rather than a broad drop in value. 830 condos for sale, the leanest count in more than a year. Roughly 10.5 to 13 months of supply depending on the pace used. Still a buyer's market, still tightening. Pending sales rose to 114, the third-highest of the past year and above the twelve-month average. Median asking slipped to $750K as sellers kept cutting; active listings hit a new-high 181 days on market. Bill 88 is law; the rezoning process is still moving through committee. Nothing is finally rezoned. |
Single-Family Homes
|
|
Sep '25 |
Oct '25 |
Nov '25 |
Dec '25 |
Jan '26 |
Feb '26 |
Mar '26 |
Apr '26 |
May '26 |
Jun '26 |
Jul '26 |
Aug '26 |
|
Sales |
56 |
63 |
49 |
66 |
52 |
46 |
76 |
49 |
58 |
78 |
54 |
64 |
|
Inventory |
438 |
436 |
450 |
446 |
456 |
448 |
436 |
437 |
444 |
464 |
465 |
470 |
|
Pending Sales |
109 |
101 |
104 |
96 |
120 |
134 |
110 |
119 |
108 |
96 |
112 |
94 |
|
Median Sales Price |
$1.29M |
$1.23M |
$1.15M |
$1.34M |
$1.45M |
$1.25M |
$1.20M |
$1.29M |
$1.17M |
$1.36M |
$1.17M |
$1.20M |
|
Avg Sales Price |
$1.76M |
$1.52M |
$1.34M |
$1.93M |
$1.93M |
$1.37M |
$1.49M |
$1.51M |
$1.48M |
$1.85M |
$1.60M |
$1.47M |
|
Median Asking Price |
$1.70M |
$1.68M |
$1.70M |
n/a |
$1.95M |
$2.00M |
$1.95M |
$1.85M |
$1.85M |
$1.84M |
$1.80M |
$1.80M |
|
Avg Asking Price |
$3.26M |
$3.12M |
$3.16M |
$3.55M |
$3.56M |
$3.70M |
$3.71M |
$3.48M |
$3.49M |
$3.52M |
$3.63M |
$3.59M |
|
Days on Mkt (active) |
141 |
138 |
138 |
140 |
136 |
144 |
147 |
153 |
158 |
156 |
160 |
165 |
|
Days on Mkt (sold) |
187 |
135 |
199 |
162 |
232 |
208 |
142 |
160 |
150 |
145 |
155 |
173 |
|
Withdrawals |
28 |
45 |
36 |
33 |
28 |
25 |
41 |
25 |
35 |
31 |
26 |
30 |
If condos are a story about the affordable end doing the buying, homes are a story about the top end sitting on its hands and about a forecast that mostly landed.
Last month we said the whole home question rode on 112 pending sales, and that we were waiting to see what they did. Here is the answer: they converted into 64 closed home sales in August, up from July's 54 and a touch above the trailing twelve-month average of about 59. Not a barn-burner, not a bust. A pause that turned back into a normal month, which is roughly what we hoped 112 pendings would deliver.
The price lines split in a most interesting way. The median home price firmed to $1,200,000, up modestly from July's $1,165,000. But the average fell again, to $1,467,570 from $1.60M, and it has now eased three months running off June's $1.85M peak. Median up, average down. That is the mirror image of the condo mix: fewer of the big luxury closings that inflate an average, so the average drifts lower while the middle of the market holds steady. The top end is still moving, just at its own unbothered pace, the way the luxury tier does everything except hurry.
Supply needs the same careful read it needed last month. At 470 active listings, home inventory nudged to a fresh twelve-month high, and at August's pace that is about 7.3 months of supply. Before anyone reads a flood into that: inventory went from 465 to 470. Five houses. Normalize the sales pace and the picture barely moves, roughly 7.2 months on a three-month basis and 7.9 on the year. Those describe the real market better than any single month's snapshot. This is a market drifting gently softer on supply, not lurching.
Now the hedge, because you know it is coming. Pending home sales fell to 94, down from 112 in July and the lowest reading in this entire table, under even December's and June's 96. Pendings are the preview of coming attractions, and this preview suggests September closings could cool back toward, or a little below, the normal pace. So I am not going to take August's rebound and promise you a strong September. One firm month sitting on top of a soft pending count is exactly the kind of setup this thin market loves to use to make a liar out of me.
The rest of the page fills in the mood. Days on market for active home listings crept to 165, a new high for the year, and days for sold homes ticked up to 173. On the asking side, the median held near $1.80M and the average eased to $3.59M. The luxury end keeps doing its slow, unhurried dance. None of it changes the shape of the market. It just says August was a normal month with a thinning pipeline behind it.
Bottom line on homes: the 112 pendings converted into 64 closings, a touch above average, and the median firmed even as the average eased with the luxury mix. Supply drifted to a new high, but by five houses, not a flood. The one number that gives me pause is 94 pending sales, a fresh low that says September could quiet down. This still reads as a thin market taking normal breaths, not one changing direction.
* Data collected on the 1st of the following month. August figures were collected September 1, 2026.
* Asking price data unavailable prior to August 2025; December '25 median asking price unavailable.
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Key Takeaways: Homes 64 home closings in August, up from July's 54 as the 112 pendings converted. A touch above the twelve-month average of about 59. Median sold price firmed to $1,200,000 while the average eased to about $1.47M, the luxury end stepping back for a third straight month. Inventory at a fresh 12-month high of 470, but that is five more homes than July. Normalized supply sits near 7.2 to 7.9 months. Pending sales fell to 94, the lowest in the table, a caution that September closings could cool. Days on market for active listings rose to 165, a new high for the year. |
A Quick Word on Land
Seven vacant-land parcels closed in August against 218 active listings, the most on the market all year. The median sale price leapt to $720,000, up from July's $628,300 and a world away from June's $309,000. Did Maui land more than double since the spring? Of course not. Seven sales happened, and with seven sales the median goes wherever those seven parcels happen to sit. Land is what it always is: a thin, patient market you measure in seasons, not months. Buyers with vision and a long fuse will still find sellers out there ready to talk story. Just do not try to draw a trend line through seven dots.
Our Take
August was the month the word “median” tried to fool everybody.
Look only at the condo median, down to a five-year low of $564,950, and you would think the bottom fell out. Look at condo inventory, down to its leanest in more than a year, with sales still above average and pendings climbing, and you would think the market is quietly tightening. Both pictures come from the same set of sales. The tiebreaker is composition: the median fell because the affordable end did the buying in August, not because condos lost a fifth of their value. If you take one idea from this report, take that one.
Homes ran the same trick in reverse. The median firmed while the average slipped, because the luxury closings that pumped up June's numbers stepped back. Same market, different slice, different story.
Which brings me to the thing I say every month, because it refuses to stop being true. There is no single “Maui real estate market.” You can stand in the Kihei sun and watch rain fall Upcountry at the same time; same island, two completely different afternoons. Condos and homes are having different afternoons right now. So is the affordable condo versus the luxury one, West Maui versus South, the well-priced listing versus the one still asking for last year's market. Our job is not to tell you whether “the Maui market” went up or down in August. It is to help you read the one small slice of it that actually touches you.
So: condo buyers, you still have choice and real leverage, but inventory has now fallen for two straight months while sales held, and that is worth respecting before you assume the discount window stays open forever. Condo sellers, the market is still paying for realism, and August's price mix does not change that; price to where buyers actually are. Home buyers and sellers, do not let one month's median, up or down, set your expectations in a market this thin, and keep an eye on that pending count.
For condos, it is still a buyer's market, but two months of falling inventory and steady sales are not nothing, and the median's dip is a mix story, not a markdown. For homes, August was a normal month sitting on a thin pipeline, so we watch those 94 pendings and stay clear-eyed about what one month can and cannot tell us. Either way, the same thing we say every month still holds: the most expensive thing you can do in a market like this is wait without information.
Let's Talk Story
If you have questions about your property's value, what these numbers mean for your situation, or whether this market is your moment to make a move, reach out anytime. We're here as a resource for the Maui community, whether you're ready to act or just trying to make sense of the headlines. No pressure, no agenda, just a conversation.
And if you or someone you know is thinking about buying, selling, or simply keeping track of Maui's real estate market, we've got a fabulous team of seasoned, well-trained agents standing by to help.
You can search every property listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com, or email me directly at lee@alohapotts.com. I answer every one.
From the greatest island on Earth, I'm Lahaina Lee, saying ALOHA.
