Is the Maui Real Estate Market Catching Fire?
The February 2026 Maui real estate market update shows a sharp divergence between closed sales and pending activity. Condo sales remain historically low, while single-family home pendings are rising. Inventory levels remain elevated at nearly 21 months of supply in the condo market. Here's what the latest Maui housing data reveals about pricing, demand, and where the market may be headed.
February 2026 Maui Market - Key Takeaways
- Condo sales remain historically low
- Condo pendings jumped 28% in January
- 918 condos currently for sale (=21 months of inventory)
- Majority of STR pendings are in apartment-zoned complexes
- Single-family home pendings rose 25%
- Median home prices rising for 3 consecutive months
- Market showing stabilization
At first glamnce, January didn't look very exciting.
If you just scan the closed sales numbers, you might even think this market may never turn around.
But when you slow down and really look at what's happening - especially pendings - there's a bit more life in the market than the headlines suggest.
As always, let's start with condos.
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Condos: Rough Closings...But Something is Shifting
I'm not going to sugarcoat it.
Condo sales in January were dismal. We haven't seen this kind of ugly since the early days of the Great Recession. That was when the whole world was going into the financial tank and condo prices were falling faster than a Led Zeppelin.
Even before seeing the final numbers we knew sales might be soft. There were only 75 condos under contract at the beginning of the month, so the pipeline was thin at best. Still, the final sales numbers were grim.
(See inventory table below - this is where the real story lives.)
And yet...
Pending sales jumped 28% in January to 96 under contract.
Now 96 isn't a huge number. But it's the third highest pending total we've seen since June of 2024 - which is about when the Maui condo market really started to take a nosedive.
So, while closings were ugly, buyers were slowly beginning to write contracts that were getting accepted.
AND - That - is a good thing.
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What Are Buyers Buying?
It's a bit of a head scratcher, but it's definitely saying something.
Of the condos currently pending:
About 60% are in complexes that allow short-term rentals. About 40% are in non-STR complexes. That split is actually pretty normal historically.
But dig one layer deeper.
Of the STR pendings, the majority are in apartment-zoned complexes - the ones considered "at risk" under Bill 9 - not the hotel-zoned, Bill 9 proof properties.
I know what you're thinking. There was probably a big price difference between the hotel-zoned and the apartment-zoned. Nope, the median asking price difference between hotel-zoned and apartment-zoned units in escrow? Only about fifteen thousand dollars. On roughly a $750,000 purchase, that's not much in the scheme of things.
So why are buyers stepping into apartment-zoned STRs?
Maybe they, and their agents, optimistically believe the new hotel zoning pathway ultimately gives those properties a future. And, with any luck, the bill and the zoning process will get passed and done before the amortization period runs out.
On the other hand, maybe these buyers are financially strong enough that if STR rights go away, they're comfortable using the property as a second home.
Or maybe they just see value.
It is not panic buying - or selling. It feels more like selective buying and both buyers and sellers are fed up with waiting for Maui county to make decisions.
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Maui Inventory & Months of Supply
The Supply Reality
Putting more future sales in the pipeline feels great, but, supply and demand is still a thing.
Condo inventory inched up again - not dramatically, just about 1% - bringing us to 918 units for sale. On its own, that number doesn't sound alarming.
However, since sales have been so light for several months, that inventory translates into just under 21 months of supply. In most markets, six months is considered balanced. Twenty-one months tells you buyers still have options - and plenty of them.
(Check out the stats in the table below.)
When you look at what makes up that inventory, it's even more telling. More than 60% of the condos currently listed are hotel-zoned, and a large share of the apartment-zoned inventory still allows short-term rental. In other words, there is no shortage of STR-capable product available right now.
That abundance is exactly why pricing softened last year. When supply outweighs demand for an extended period, prices adjust. We saw that play out through 2025, with both the median and average condo prices falling roughly 20% from 2024. November felt like the low-water mark, particularly when the median dipped below $600,000 before stabilizing as we moved into the new year.
That's not pessimism. It's just math.
The good news is this: markets don't need fireworks to turn. They need steady absorption. If buyers continue stepping in at this pace, even gradually, the balance will shift.
We're not there yet - but we may be starting the process.
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Quiet Closings, Loud Pendings
Now let's talk homes.
January closing were unimpressive - only 52 single-family homes sold. That's down from December, and the 3rd lowest month in the last 12. But here's the part that made me lean forward a little.
Pending sales jumped 25% from 96 to 120. And by mid-February, we were already seeing strong contract activity continuing.
That doesn't really feel like a one-month blip, it's feeling a little like momentum. It feels like buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines are finally moving.
Inventory ticked up slightly - nothing dramatic - just a slow steady climb that we've been watching for over a year.
And prices?
The average selling price in the low $1.9M range was basically flat month-to-month, but that is still substantially higher than the $1.3 range just 2 months ago.
The median has risen three months in a row. That tells me the mix of what's selling has shifted slightly higher.
There were five sales over $4 million in January. That's a pretty average luxury month on Maui, but a little disappointing for what I think of as our high season.
Geographically, no big surprises. Central and South Maui led the way with 27 new pendings each. Upcountry had 18, followed by North Shore, Haiku/Sprecklesville/Paiai; only Hana had fewer new pendings, zero, than West Maui with only 9.
What stands out isn't explosive growth.
It's improving momentum.
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So...What's Really Happening?
I wouldn't say the market is taking off. And I wouldn't say it's struggling either.
What I see is a market trying to find its footing.
Condo closings were rough - but contracts picked up.
Home sales were soft - but pendings jumped in a meaningful way.
Prices aren't surging. They're not falling off a cliff either. They feel like they're searching for balance.
This doesn't feel anything like 2021. And it doesn't feel like the Great Recession.
If feels like buyers who've been cautious are starting to test the water again.
That doesn't flip the supply-and-demand equation overnight. We still inventory to work through. But momentum doesn't start with headlines - it starts quietly, with contracts.
If this pace of pendings continues for another month or two, then we're looking at a different conversation as we head into spring.
For now, I'd call it measured improvement.
And after the past couple of years Maui has had, measured improvement is something I'll take.
Every property reacts differently in a shifting market. If you'd like to understand how your specific condo or home fits into these trends, let's have a conversation.
Email: Lee@AlohaPotts.com
808-276-8772
LahainaLee.com
*Data sourced from the Realtor Association of Maui (RAM) monthly statistics.
