Aloha, part of our aim is to come from gratitude and look for silver linings. The Lahaina and Kula wildfires have clearly had a dramatic and traumatic impact on the community.
Itʻs been tough, and the way forward is not clear in any way. However, forward is where we must go. The visions for the future of Lahaina are as varied and diverse as the people who live here. We can build back to serve many of the diverse interests in a way that weʻve never seen before if those varied and diverse groups are willing to undertake the "C" word, that many groups and politicians find abhorrent these days.
Whatever way we move forward, there is no denying the physical, emotional, and economic impact of the fires. Their effects will continue to ripple through the islands for years to come.
Real estate, and the businesses related to it, including tourism, are major drivers in the economy. So how is the market fairing? Letʻs look at the numbers.
Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks before closing.
Sales of homes, condos and land all declined in October, and each category hit their lowest level in many months. There are multiple reasons for the decline, including lack of inventory, interest rates, and of course, the aftermath of the fires.
Single family home sales declined in almost all areas of Maui compared to the previous month and the same month a year ago. The exception was Upcountry, but only by a small margin. There were 6 sales in Kula, and 3 sales in Makawao. Wailuku posted the highest number of sales with 11, however, several of those are in a newer development and had been under contract since May or earlier.
Condo sales were also lower in most areas. Kihei had the most sales at 21. The largest drop in sales compared to the same month a year ago was the Napili/Honokowai/Kahana area, where there were just 7 sales compared to 20 in October of 2022.
Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category.
Inventory levels seem to be stuck near all time lows. Even though the market seems to be slow, prices are holding due to continued high demand. So, even in these crazy days, itʻs a sellerʻs market.
With 233 homes on the market, there are only 41 in the whole county, including Molokai and Lanai, priced at $1,000,000 and under. Two of them are in Kihei and zero are in West Maui.
West Maui home prices start at $1,234,000 for a 2 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom home. Many of you may be familiar with Kahana Ridge, a nice community with nice homes. The starting price for Kahana Ridge is now $2,150,000.
Condo inventory has increased a bit. In fact, at 245 condos for sale we have the highest number of condos for sale since April of 2021. However, prices are holding, and we expect to even see demand increase as folks, including folks like us who have lost their homes, are looking for a place to live.
Pending Sales represent properties that are under contract but have not yet closed. Pendings are the pipeline that tell us how many sales are likely to happen in the next couple of months.
Pending sales are down for both homes and condos. With 100 homes under contract, there are fewer under contract now than in the last few months, but there were only 112 under contract in the same month last year, so the decline isnʻt dramatic. With the current level of demand and a slight increase in inventory, I wouldnʻt be surprised to see an increase in pending sales soon.
Having just 134 condos under contract is a huge change from a year ago when there were 202 under contract. In fact, there were over 300 condos consistently under contract during most of 2022. While this is a huge decline, with only 4 months of inventory, this is still a sellerʻs market.
SELLING PRICES: average and median sold price
We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because the median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low-priced sales.
I recently saw a headline stating that home prices on Maui were down. Whoever wrote that isnʻt looking at the same data as us or the Realtors Association of Maui (RAM). According to RAM, the average selling price for 2023 year-to-date, at $1,770,978, is slightly higher than the YTD in 2022. This monthʻs average home selling price was down slightly from the previous month, but that is likely an indication of fewer high-end sales. We are also in the slower part of the season for high-end sales, so we could see that change with the warm winter season right around the corner.
The median selling price for a home has risen consistently over the course of the year and is holding steady at well over $1.2 million. The year-to-date median selling prices through October in 2021 and 2022 were $930,000 and $1,075,000 respectively. We are at an 18% increase in selling price year over year according to RAM. So much for the expected negative impact for higher interest rates.
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It will be interesting to see what happens in the Maui real estate market over the next few months, to say the least. In the meantime, there are a lot of people who need help and will for some time to come. The team at AGM is working to help Mauiʻs keiki with their basic day-to-day needs, and hopes to continue, especially with mental health support, in the months and years ahead.
You can help by making a tax-deductible contribution at GoFundMe - Keiki Fire Relief Fund or click on the QR code below.
Get more information and details
To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com. If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to firstname.lastname@example.org, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you. As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.
About Aloha Group Maui
Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), Heather Zidell, R(S), Magdalena Odonnell R(S), Sarah Twitchell R(S), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business. We are in business for pleasure and profit. We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit). Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed. So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.
Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization. Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.
Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz). She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.
Copyright 2023 L. Lee Potts
Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc. While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes. Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.