Quick Update:

Aloha, if you would like to come to Maui, we're open! If you don't know where to start with the required testings it's really not that hard, we've done it. Click here to find the State of Hawaii's Travel Partners. Barb was just checking online for some airfare updates and it looks like there are some deals out there. Come on out, soak up some nice warm sun, and enjoy the whales!

Speaking of whales, February is Whale Soup Month. If you're not familiar with that term, it means if you're lucky enough to be out on the water in February, no matter where you turn, you can't help but see spouts, breaches, tail slaps and all kinds of activities. If you weren't here, you missed the soup, but there are still tons of whales, literally and figuratively, out playing in the sun. We were out yesterday. If you want to see how it was, check out Whale Snot and Monk Seals below.

So, how is real estate doing on Maui? Let's look at the numbers.

Sales:

Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks before closing.

It seems like I say this every month, real estate sales are defying gravity. What I mean is, I don't understand how sales can keep happening at the current rate. The number of home sales has varied very little in the lat 6 months and sales are up 21.7% over the same month last year. What has varied are inventory and selling prices, each of which we'll dig into a little later. 

Condo sales are much the same. I'm very surprised to see that sales are up 23.9% over February of 2020, when we were effectively pre-COVID, at least form a quarantine basis. Both the December 2020 and February 2021 sales exceeded 160 condos. Those are the highest numbers we've seen in at least 3 years.

And where are these condo sales happening? The hot spots are Kapalua, Lahaina, and Wailea.

Pending Sales:

Pending sales represent properties that are under contract but have not yet closed. Pendings are the pipeline that tell us how many sales are likely to happen in the next couple of months.

The number of properties pending, or under contract, soared to 800 at month end and keep climbing like there is no gravity and no shortage of inventory.

The number of single family homes under contract is up 62.5% over the same month last year. Although you can see form the chart that it was pretty consistent from September through January before taking a big inventory defying jump in February, I don't see a single month in the last 3 years that had 266 pending homes.

There are currently 384 condos under contract. Last year at this time there were just 306. According to the Realtor Association stats, then number of condos that went pending in February was up 76.3% over the same month in pre-quarantine 2020.

Inventory:

Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category.

And now, for the issue that is plaguing almost every real estate market in America, that 9 letter word, inventory.

There are currently 205 homes for sale. At the current pace of sales that is enough to last 2 months. However, at the current median selling price, there are only 38 homes for sale on Maui. We can not measure our inventory by weeks or even days at the "lower" price points.

At the mid-price point, $900,000 to $2,000,000 there are only 50 homes for sale. In that range we have 2 months of inventory. At $2,000,000 and up we have 5 months of inventory. By National Association of Realtors standards, even at $2 mil, it's a "seller's market".

The inventory of condos is also falling rapidly. Just look at September's number vs. today. The good news there is that the number of new listings coming to market is actually up over this time last year. They are just selling faster than they are coming to market. With 506 for sale, that's just enough for 3 months of sales at the current pace.

Selling Prices: Average and median sold prices

We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because the median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high-priced or very low-priced sales.

Stop me if you've heard this before. It's all about supply and demand. Although the median selling price for homes is down from January's all time high of $989,500, February's number is almost 20% higher than February of 2020.

The average selling price seems to be closing in on $2,000,000. Last February, it was under $1,000,000. That is an 86% jump in selling price. WOW!

The changes in condo prices are not nearly so dramatic. In fact, those price points are boringly stable. In fact, a year ago, the median selling price was $556,000. Compared to February's $558,495, that's statistically the same. But remember about that supply and demand thing.

And add this - the average selling price certainly is not stable. The average price a year ago was $666,694. Average prices have topped $800,000 in 5 of the last 6 months and even broke $900,000 once. What does that tell us? More of that higher price inventory is selling now that it was a year ago. That's where the hot demand is right now.

Days on Market:

The days on market (DOM) is the number of days a property has been on the market until close of escrow.

After what I used to consider to be a normal number of days on market, homes dropped back to 125. Only 30% were cash sales and banks' lending departments are backed up due to low interest rates and refinancing, so, I'm not sure why that number is down.

The DOM for condos seems pretty normal. The limited number of banks that will finance condo-tels, short term rental or vacation rental condos, are telling us they are taking about 75 days to close a loan now. So, I expect that those will remain at about that level.

Thanks for reading, see you next month and feel free to pass this along to any friends looking for real estate information on Maui.

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Get more information and details

To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com.  If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you.  As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.

 

About Aloha Group Maui

Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Beau Dyer R(B), Angie Liu R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Paul Goodman R(B), Jamie Martin R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business.  We are in business for pleasure and profit.  We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit).  Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed.  So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.

 

Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization.  Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.  

 

Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz).  She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.

 

Copyright 2021 L. Lee Potts

Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc.  While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed.  This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes.  Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.