Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere from 2to 8 weeks before closing.
Home sales rebounded from a significant drop in May. While they are still below the average number of sales per month for the beginning of the year, it looks like home sales will get back to pre-COVID levels in the next month or so. Make sure to read about Pendings and Inventory below.
Condo sales rose slightly from the May level, but they are still off 50% from February and almost 60% from March. Kahoma Village and Honua Kai's Luana Gardens accounted for 14% of condo sales. Those condos are new developer offerings and went under contract before building had even started in some cases. That was long before anyone even heard of COVID-19. In fact, one of those units was under contract for 807 days before closing. I wonder if those would have all sold in today's market?
Pending sales represent properties that are under contract but have not yet closed. Pendings are the pipeline that tells us how many sales are likely to happen in the next couple of months.
Pendings had dropped all the way down to 327 in April after topping out at 608 in February. Now we're back up to 442, which is about a 35% bump. The real story is home pendings. This month pending sales of single family homes rose to 204. The average number of pendings in that category for the last 12 months is 196. Real estate slow down? What real estate slow down?
That's easy, the slow down is in condo sales. Although pending sales rose to 174 in June, that is still 29% lower than the average number of condo pendings for the 12 months prior to COVID.
Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category.
If you haven't heard me say this before, I'll say it again. In planning for our business for 2020 I was nervous. I expected sales to be way down. But I thought sales would be way down due to lack of inventory. Well, I was kind of wrong. Here's what I mean.
Based on actual sales and pending sales, home sales look like they are coming back to normal. When COVID hit, we, and the national experts, thought home sales wouldn't be significantly hurt due to the high demand and the lack of supply. The inventory of homes for sale dropped in June to just 396 units. Barbara, AKA "The Boss", has been keeping Maui month end totals on a spreadsheet since July 2013. This month has the lowest number of homes for sale in over 7 years. It's supply and demand, folks!
And you could probably see this coming. Condos are the other side of the coin. This month the number of condos for sale hit 584. That really doesn't sound like that many units, in fact, at the current rate of sales that's only 8 months of supply. With 6 months of inventory being considered a balanced market, 8 months' worth tilts slightly in favor of buyers. However, it is notable that 584 units for sale is the highest number of condos for sale since March 2018.
We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low priced sales.
The median selling price for homes dropped back under the $800,000 mark this month. The average for the previous 12 months was $770,000. So, a median selling price of $757,750 is within the range of normal fluctuations for Maui home prices.
For condos, inventory is up, sales and pending sales are down. Said another way, supply is up, demand is down. So, what would you expect prices to do? If you look at our 6 month chart it would be easy to conclude that prices are on their way down. But April and May had a number of closings in the $2 million plus range at Honua Kai's Luana Gardens, which skews the numbers. If we look at the 12 months pre-COVID we see something quite different. The average of the 112 months pre-COVID is $517,000. So, are prices for condos really drifting down? Maybe, but we'll need to keep watching to say for sure.
Days on Market:
The days on market (DOM) is the number of days a property has been on the market until close of escrow. There have been some modest spikes, but we're not really seeing the DOM fluctuate that much really.
Get more information and details
To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.alohagroupmaui.com. If you can't find what you're looking for there, send us an email to email@example.com and we'll do our best to get an answer for you. As we get more requests for information, we'll add new sections to our website, newsletter or both.
About Aloha Group Maui
Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR R(B), and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals: Angie Liu R(S), Beau Dyer R(B), Cheri Miller R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Paul Goodman R(B), Suni Novotny R(S), and Tony Brow R(B). We are business people, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business. We are in business for pleasure and profit. We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own on Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit). Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed. So fi you are buying property on Maui, it is a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.
Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization. Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.
Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back with both Steve's were there (Job and Woz). She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.
Lee, Barbara and the team are licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.