Maui Real Estate Insights and Island Life: Your December 2024 Maui Real Estate Advisor with Lahaina Lee
Aloha! I'm Lahaina Lee and this is your Maui Real Estate Advisor for December 2024. It's the last month of 2024 and that's good cause I can't take no more.
In real estate on Maui, home inventory is up, home sales are up, and condo sales are down, down, down. So how is that affecting prices? Read on and we'll get to that shortly.
But first, let's talk about the recovery. In the last couple of weeks, I've had an opportunity to chat with a few people who have driven through Lahaina on the highway for the first time in months. They were genuinely excited and impressed to see building going on the mauka (mountain) side of the highway.
Additionally, many of the so-called affordable housing projects are taking shape. Driving down from the bypass you can see the new apartments and many of the FEMA and other affordable housing areas that appear almost ready for habitation. That is all great news on the horizon.
On the makai (ocean) side of the highway Lahaina town is languishing. As I noted last month, the current draft plan for Lahaina most notably says the county is waiting for more input. Long time Lahaina town merchants, and certainly residents, feel anxious over the vagueness of this seemingly half-baked plan.
Groups like the Front Street Recovery Group and Lahaina Restoration Foundation advocate rebuilding Front Street as it was, despite outside voices citing sea rise and flooding concerns. Those are legitimate concerns, but 'twas fire, not water, that caused the devastation. There are locations all over the world that have built restaurants and shops on or over the ocean.
Plenty of outsiders are telling Lahaina residents why they can't rebuild. But if residents and Lahaina business owners are willing to spend their own money and shoulder the risk, who are the outsiders to tell us we can't rebuild?
A thriving Lahaina Town is essential for our economy, tax base, and cultural identity - and we miss it dearly.
And speaking of island visitors, statewide, October saw a 97.3% recovery rate in arrivals compared to pre-pandemic 2019. Maui's visitor count, however, is still down 24% from October 2019. The silver lining? Visitor spending is up slightly (2.3%) from the same period. So, if you're dreaming of warm weather, come visit us!
Speaking of the buyers' market...let's do the numbers.
Condos: A Textbook Buyer's Market
If you've ever studied real estate and needed an example of a buyers' market, look no further than Maui's condo scene right now.
- Sales: Condo sales are way down, dipping below 50 units in November. It's the lowest number since the Great Recession.
- Inventory: Over 700 condos are for sale, with nearly 15 months of inventory. Pending sales have plummeted to 67, a steep drop form May's 100+ and last year's 156 in November. This is cause for great concern as pendings are the leading indicators of what we will see in the coming months
- Pricing: The median selling prices is $730,000 - the lowest in six months and 18% below October's median. The average selling price also fell below $1 million for the first time this year, signaling a slowdown in the high-end condos sales.
And that is your definition of a buyers' market.
If you're following all the hubbub with the Mayor's legislation proposal and my concerns about the lack of tourism on the West Side, it is notable that in October there were only 11 condo sales on that side of Maui. Of those sales two are zoned apartment and therefore on the so-called Minatoya list. Two others zoned for either owner occupant or long-term rental, and the remainder were hotel zoned or zoned through some other mechanism for short term rental.
For investors or bargain hunters, West Maui condos in apartment-zoned districts offer promising opportunities - negotiate wisely!
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Single-Family Homes: A Mixed Bag
The single-family home market defies simple labels. It's neither a buyers' nor a sellers' market - it depends on the price point and location.
- Sales: November saw 62 sales, the highest in three months.
- Inventory: Inventory also rose - that's good news - topping 350 homes for sale at the end of November. That is the highest number of homes for sale in any month this year. In fact, home inventory is up 63% over January of this year and with all that increase it is still a balanced market with 5.7 months of homes for sale.
- Pricing: The median selling price is steady at $1,311,000, with the average just below $1.7 million.
If you're looking for a home that's priced at $1,300,000 or below even $1,500,000 or below you're looking at a sellers' market. Now there are some good buys at that price. I especially like the homes that are being built in Wailuku in a complex called Anuhea. They're nice homes with nice views, offering green spaces and trails.
For luxury homes ($4M+), it's a buyers' market, with 92 listings and just four sales last month. Two of the sales were in Kaanapali, one in Wailea and on up in Kula.
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Looking Ahead
Next month, we'll recap 2024's real estate trends and peek into what's ahead for 2025. It kind of reminds me of that song, you know, in the year 2525. Ok, we're not there yet! Until then, enjoy the holidays, and if Maui's on your mind, know we've got room for you. It's about 80 degrees, the skies are blue, and the ocean's warm - well, mostly.
From the beautiful island of Maui, this is Lahaina Lee saying, Alooooha!
