The real estate market is HOT, but sales are sagging.

We'll talk about that in a minute. First, what's happening on Maui?

COVID Mandates

Most COVID mandates are likely ending soon. Lt. Governor Josh Green, reported that he and other state leaders are "cautiously optimistic" that most COVID-19 mandates could be lifted by the end of next month. He cited an 83% drop in cases for Hawaii. He said the Safe Travels program is set to expire on March 25.

New Affordable Housing Project

A new 752 unit affordable housing project is being proposed. It would be in Waiehu, near Wailuku. It would include a mix of multi-family and single-family homes.

In addition, Developer Mike Atherton is hoping to break ground on a new housing development in Waikapu that would be a mix of affordable homes and larger rural lots. 213 of the homes in the 500 home development would be slated as affordable housing. Read more about this long awaited housing project

Whale Mania

February is the height of whale season here on Maui. And, just in case you're missing them, here are a few links to our whale watches.

January Whale Watch

Whale Season on Maui 1.0

And a favorite from a friend a few years ago.

A Close Encounter with a Humpback Calf

25 Mile West Maui Bike and Hike Trail Proposed

MauiNow reports there is a lot of interest in plans to create a 25-mile bike and walking trail. The trail will run form Ukumehame to Lipoa Point in West Maui. Several organizations, including the Maui Metropolitan Planning Organization, the County of Maui, and Alta Planning and Design are collaborating. 

Now let's do the numbers.

 

SALES:

Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere form 2 to 8 weeks before closing.

Home sales sagging in January, dropped 23% from December. Low inventory, steadily increasing pries, and competition have kept some buyers from getting the home they wanted. Ninety percent of the homes listed for sale today are priced over $1,000,000 and most are on the market less than 14 days.

Condo sales also dropped in January, just over 9%. It also appears that pricing and inventory may be stabilizing a bit. The inventory level is still at historically low levels, but at least they didn't decline during the month. On the other hand, the market is still hot for well-priced properties in desirable locations.

If you are thinking of buying, you might be interested in our new blog post, 6 Insider Tops for Winning Real Estate in 2022.

 

PENDING SALES:

Pending sales represent the properties that are under contract but have not yet closed. Pendings are the pipeline that tell us how many sales are likely to happen in the next couple of months.

While actual closed sales for homes dropped in January, as did inventory, the number of homes going under contract increased over 6%. As we see new listing come to market, we also see that they go under contract in less than 2 weeks in most cases. That indicates that the buyers are ready and are acting quickly.

The number of condos under contract remained steady in January, as did inventory. However, the number of condos pending is still more than two and a half times the number of condos for sale. And the 346 condos pending right now are the second highest number of pending sales in the last 6 months.

 

INVENTORY:

Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category.

The number of homes for sale dropped slightly, just over 3%, in January. January was also the sixth month in a row the there were less than 200 homes for sale. The 177 homes for sale amounts to less than 2 months of inventory. However, for buyers shopping at the median price point of $1,160,000 or less, the supply is much lower than the demand.

The supply of condos for sale remained virtually flat at 138 condos. This is actually the highest inventory level in the last 6 months. Wow! How does that compare to January of 2021, a mere year ago? Way back 12 months ago there were 577 condos for sale. 

 

SELLING PRICE: average and median sold prices

We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because the median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low priced sales.

The average selling price for homes rose over 7% to just under $1.7 million. Even with that jump, it is still far lower than the 6 month high of just under $2 million established back in November of 2021.

The median price rose over 5% for the month reaching $1,160,000. The median selling price, which we believe is a better measure of how the market is trending, has risen steadily after a drop off in September. The difference is the median home price from January 2021 to January 2022 is 17%.

The average selling price for a Maui condo dropped 15% compared to last month. However, it is still almost $1 million and the median rose slightly. So, there might be some stabilization in condo pricing, however, when there are still more condos selling every month, demand, than the amount of active inventory, supply, there will still be upward pressure on prices.

DAYS ON MARKET: arg-sold listings

The days on market (DOM) is the number of days a property has been on the market until close of escrow.

Although the stats indicated that the number of days on market for homes have increased there may be an explanation that isn't really market related. Several homes in new developments closed. Since the buyers were under contract well before the homes were finished, the days on market are showing well over 300 days. There was also a house that had been on the market for 1,085 days. Those have an effect on the average.

DOM for condos went the other way, dropping to under 100 days. That might indicate a lot of cash closings since cash sales can close more quickly than financed offers. And, about 45% of last month's sales were cash sales.

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Get more information and details

To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com.  If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you.  As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.

 

About Aloha Group Maui

Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business.  We are in business for pleasure and profit.  We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit).  Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed.  So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.

 

Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization.  Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.  

 

Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz).  She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.

 

Copyright 2022 L. Lee Potts

Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc.  While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed.  This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes.  Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.