As storms bring freezing weather across the US, visitors flock to Maui. Right now Maui feels as busy as it has ever been based on traffic and parking, especially the parking lot at the Lahaina Safeway. Safeway's parking lot is my visual rule of thumb for just how busy Maui is at any point.
You may have noticed that the cost of "things" in the last year have gone up. If you own real estate on Maui, your property values are up. If you own a short term property on Maui, your revenue should be up as well.
The average daily rate for a "unit" on Maui in January was $426. That is up 20.4% over the rate in 2022, and up 49.3% over 2019. That data comes from the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism's Hawaii Vacation Rental Performance Report (that's a mouthful). Those looking for a room in Wailea should budget $1,000 per night or more.
I noted that it feels busier, and it is slightly busier based on rental occupancy at a mere 1.3% above last year, but we are actually 17% below 2019 at this time. However, the island is still very busy, and if you are coming over, you should make reservations for activities and restaurants well in advance of arrival.
If you follow real estate, and you must if you're reading this, the press is printing gloom and doom. That may be the case where you are, but it's not the case across the country. And just what is the case on Maui? Let's do the numbers.
Home sales on Maui continue to decline. Month over month the number of sales is down almost 14%, with just 58 homes sold compared to 66 in December. The number of sales are down 37% compared to January of 2022.
The outlook for increasing sales is not particularly optimistic based on supply; because while sales are down 37% over a year ago, new listings are down even further as there were 45.2% fewer listings this January than last.
There are usually more condo sales than home sales. However, as condo inventory refuses to rise, the number of sales continues to fall. In January, the number of sales plummeted over 24% from the previous month. The month's 54 sales were also over 65% lower than last January, when there were 156 sales recorded.
Just as with homes, the inventory remains stubbornly low as new listings were off 40% from the previous year.
But there may be a light at the end of this tunnel.
Home inventory was flat month over month, but despite the lower number of listings coming to market, the number of homes on the market has been rising slightly month to month since the end of 2022. How can that be? It's simple. The rate of sales has been declining faster than new homes are coming to market.
The decline in sales, even with inventory staying relatively flat, meant that many homes were staying on the market longer than usual. Between August and November, the average days on market for homes sold went from just 97 days all the way up to 153 days. Last month, days on market dropped back to just 119 days. So, despite lower sales, what is on the market that is priced well and in good condition, is still moving pretty quickly.
The number of condos for sale rose 6% last month. Condo inventory has been rising slightly after bottoming out at 155 condos for sale in September. At the end of last month we had 219 for sale, which is still barely 4 months of inventory. It is still a good market for sellers.
SELLING PRICE: average and median sold price
If you listen to the national news you have probably heard that real estate prices have been coming down. That is most definitely not the case for homes on Maui. The average selling prices in January was 43% higher than December. But that is the trouble with averages. January's average is completely skewed by one big sale. And at $32,673,491, that is one big sale.
The median selling price, which we believe to be a better gauge, was up 7%. The median price has drifted up a little bit over the last 6 months, but prices have really been pretty stable. With signs of more buyer activity and continued low inventory there are no visible signs that prices will be declining on Maui any time soon.
Condos are a bit of a different story. The average selling price of a condo was down 3.3%, which could easily be just a normal one month fluctuation. However, the median price was off just over 18%. January was the 3rd month in a row that the median price declined. It has been running in the high $700's to low $800's pretty consistently, so a drop from $856,250 to $657,500 over three months is something to keep an eye on.
Get more information and details
To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com. If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to firstname.lastname@example.org, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you. As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.
About Aloha Group Maui
Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), Heather Zidell, R(S), Magdalena Odonnell R(S), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business. We are in business for pleasure and profit. We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit). Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed. So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.
Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization. Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.
Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz). She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.
Copyright 2023 L. Lee Potts
Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc. While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes. Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.