Inventory tells the tale of the market

Prices for homes stall while condo prices soar 

How is the market? Well, 2018 got off to a slow start, but at the end of the year sales were up for both homes and condos. Home sales finished up a modest 3.3%, but condo sales shot up 13.8%.

Home prices on the other hand finished the year flat.  The median selling price did finish a modest 2.2% higher than 2017; but, the average selling price finished unchanged for the year. 

The market for single family homes will slow in 2019. It has to. The inventory of homes for sale is down 13.2% compared to 2017, and 2017 inventory was off 6.4% from 2016.

Based on the current rate of sales, we have enough inventory, homes for sale, 514 units, to last a little over 5 months. That would be perfectly adequate, except for one thing.  The number of homes for sale at or below the median selling price of $710,000 is only 107, and at the current rate of sales that’s only enough inventory for approximately 2 months. 

On the other hand, if you are looking for a luxury home, we have lots to choose from.

Condos had another big year. Sales volume and median selling prices both had double digit increases. Unit sales increased 13.8% over 2017 and the median selling price was up 12.4%. The average selling price for a condo was up 6.3%.

We will also see some slowing in the Maui condo market. At an average monthly sales pace of 133 units, we have enough total inventory to last for only about 4 months. However, the inventory for condos selling $500,000, the median selling price, or less, there is only 2.5 months of inventory available.

Additionally, as selling prices and interest rates, especially the rates for condo-tels, continue to increase, there are fewer people who can afford to get into the market.

While we still have plenty of buyers, they are getting more cautious and picky. The market is still favorable, but if you are just thinking about selling, it’s time to get off the fence.  

 

So, if condos are in short supply, why hasn’t this one sold yet?

 

If that headline sounds familiar, there is a reason. It’s the same as last year.

If you are selling a condo in a complex that allows short term rentals, the average days on market is 156. As the price point goes up, so does the days on market number.

If you are selling in a complex that does not allow short term rentals, the average days on market is only 96 days and the median is 57 days. If your unit is on the market longer than that, you might want to look at the price and/or condition.

Of course, there are other conditions that come into play, but we’ll discuss those in a separate post.

Area Highlights

The hot spot (as usual) is Kihei. With 611 sales for the year, Kihei accounted for 37% of all condo sales. This year’s sales were up 5.2%. The average price was up 6.5%, which mirrored the Maui average. However, the median price, while up a healthy 9.3%, lagged behind the island average of 12.4%. Additionally, the $410,000 median selling price is almost 20% below the Maui median. 

Sticking to the south side, Wailea/Makena was red hot with 216 sales. The average selling price was actually off by almost 10% compared to 2017, but still a touch over $1,500,000. The median selling price was up a modest 3%. Wailea sales were given a boost by Keala O Wailea, a new development that does not allow short term rentals.

West Maui is the other big regional market for condos. The west side districts comprised of Lahaina, Kaanapali, Honokowai, Kahana, Napili and Kapalua accounted for 549 sales, 33% of all the sales on Maui.

About 45% of those sales come from the district of Napili/Kahana/Honokowai where sales were up 9.4%. The median selling price was $438,500, up 5.7%, a respectable gain, but still below the Maui average.

Kaanapali sales jumped 34% to 173 units. Price increases lagged well behind the rest of the island with the average selling price up 3.4% to $1,104,534 and the median up just 2.7% $801,000. The hot properties in Kaanapali were Kaanapali Shores and Honua Kai.

Lahaina condo sales were up a respectable 16%. The average selling price was up 18%, but the median increased only 4.3%. Kahoma Village, new development with a mix of workforce and market price housing, accounted for much these noted gains. It will have a bigger impact in 2019 as only a small number of the planned units sold in 2018.

Kapalua finishes off the West Side. With 45 units sold, sales were down by 18% compared to the prior year. The average selling price was up 3.4% and the median was up by 8.6%.  

Central Maui’s Wailuku and Kahului accounted for 203 sales. Interestingly, the number of sales for Kahului in 2018 was exactly the same as 2017 with only 35. However, Wailuku sales were up by 35 units or 26%. More than 30% of those Wailuku sales came from one new complex, Kamani at Kehalani.

Last year I said that buyers had finally found Maalaea. This year buyers continued to see the value in this area that offers an ideal central location and a consistent breeze… OK, it can be windy. However, the space that most people use most of the time is protected. And sales are up 7%. That’s not a huge number, but average selling prices were up just over 20% and the median selling price is up 32%, the biggest increase on the island.

For more information on these or any other units send an email with your request to info@AlohaGroupMaui.com or, visit our website at wwwAlohaGroupMaui.com.

 

Single family home sales up, but slowing

Prices are up and inventory is down 

 

While the number of single family homes sold in 2018 rose, it was a smallish increase, only 3.3%. But that was still more than the 2% increase we had back in 2017. The important thing is that we had an increase, in spite of thin inventory. Inventory, being the culprit for declining sales as we’ve already mentioned, was down 13.2% from 2017. There are signs of a “shifting” market, most prominently in sales prices. The overall median selling price year-over-year was only up by 2% and the average selling price was flat at zero percent change. A normal market, whatever that is, has a historic increase of 4 – 6% per annum on Maui.

Our overall inventory doesn’t really indicate a shortage. After all, we have almost 6 months of inventory indicating a balanced market. Of course, that’s the whole market and we like to look at both markets, meaning the higher to luxury end of the market and the market for everyone else.

The median selling price on Maui for 2018 was $710,000. We were selling about 45 homes per month at that price point or lower. We currently have 107 homes on the market priced at $710,000 or less. That is enough to last just slightly over 2 months. That is clearly a seller’s market.

Area Highlights

The biggest percentage gainer of any of the major areas in Maui County was Kaanapali. Kaanapali was hot in 2018 with a 56% increase in homes sold. The median selling price was just over $1.8 million. There were 3 homes sold per month on average and, with 30 active listings there now, there are plenty of homes for sale in Kaanapali.

The island of Molokai was also hot with a 41% increase in sales. The average selling price there rose a modest 2.7%, but the average price plunged to $320,000, a drop of 17.6%.

The major Maui area with the most sales was the central area of Wailuku/Kahului. Wailuku had 264 sales and Kahului had 137. Wailuku’s number of sales rose 22.8% with the help of some new developments.

Kahului sales declined and that is likely to continue. Kahului has one of the more desirable price points and there is currently only enough homes for sale to last 2 months.

The next largest area for home sales was Kihei. Kihei sales were down from the previous year by 10%. The median price declined by less than ½ of 1% to $700,000. As of this writing there are 56 homes for sale in Kihei and only 7 are priced at the median price or below.

The number of home sales in Lahaina declined by 18.5%. The median selling price dropped by 22.7% while the average selling price rose by 5%, indicating some sales at the higher price range to skew the average. There are currently 8 homes for sale in Lahaina at the median price or lower.

Another popular west side district, Napili/Kahana/Honokowai, also had a significant decline in sales, down 24%. However, both the average selling price and the median selling price were up 4% and 5% respectively. With a median selling price of $924,000 there are only 2 homes currently for sale at or below the median.

Wailea/Makena had better news for buyers. Sales there were up 21.4%. Perhaps the fact that the average selling price was down 29% and the median was down 19.5% helped attract more buyers to that upscale location.

Sales in the Kula district declined 10%. The area remains a popular option for those who prefer a cooler climate. Prices reflected the popularity with the average up 8% and the median up 12% to $950,000.

Just down the mountain a ways in the somewhat more affordable Pukalani, the median selling price at $704,000 was up a modest 3.5%. However, the number of home sales was off 22.6%. Currently, there are only 6 homes priced at or below the median selling price.

All the way back down the mountain to Paia and Spreckelsville sales were up by 4 homes. Prices however, were down significantly. The average selling price was off a whopping 56.4%, but that is still $1,161,743. The median was off 34.6% to $795,000.

Rounding out the island overview is green, serene Haiku where the number of sales increased by 8%. Both the average and median selling price were ahead of the Maui average, coming in at 8% and 11.8% respectively. 

For more information send an email with your request to info@alohagroupmaui.com, or see all of the listings on Maui at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com.

Be sure to visit us online at AlohaGroupMaui.com

 

A hui ho!

 

Aloha Group Maui - Keller Williams Realty Maui can help you buy, sell or exchange a home or condo - for you to live in full time, part time or as an investment. Learn more about Maui Real Estate in our Maui Real Estate 101 resources section. Stay informed of market trends by reading the Maui Real Estate Advisor. Aloha Group Maui - Your Maui Real Estate Professionals.