Beautiful sunset photo taken by Don McLeish. It was the most liked photo on our Instagram last month. We'd love to see your photos as well, you never know, you might just be featured on our social media!
Well, this will be the last newsletter of 2021. Another year has flown by and the Maui real estate market is still flying high. More about that when we do the numbers, but first...
In a press conference on November 23, Governor Ige annouced a new emergency COVID-19 proclamation. This one is going the other way. He effectively gave the counties the ability to make their own decisions.
If you heard about the big storm on Maui, it's true. A week ago Sunday, we had a heck of a rain storm (Ok, I can hear you saying, "we need the rain"). In Kihei, the roads were flooded. One vacation resort complex is completely shut down for a while. Kula lost power for a couple of days and the Westside got rain and wind, but besides the downed branches that made a mess, we were pretty okay. By Wednesday morning, it was just another day in paradise.
And in sports, Maui High School's Kaimana Cantere, won the state Cross Country championship. Maui was once again the host of the Xterra World Championships. Hayden Wild of New Zealand won for the men, and gold medalist, Flora Duffy from Bermuda, was the women's champ. And when did this great race occur? Last Sunday, the day of the torrential downpour. These people are tough.
In real estate news, the proposed phase-out of short term rentals, TVR's, in apartment zoned properties is not dead. It is possible that a new proposal could be coming forward. The new proposal is rumored to try and eliminate apartment district properties located outside the 3.2 foot sea rise level exposure area.
Stay tuned for more Maui and real estate news, sports and weather, but now...
Let's do the numbers.
Sales:
Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks before closing.
Home sales managed to keep their nose just above the 100 sales mark despite our incredible shrinking inventory. How can that be? New listings are hitting the shelves and flying off fast. Thirty-seven homes, 20% of the total inventory, were listed in the last 2 weeks. And, if they re priced anywhere near what most of us imagine the right price to be, they'll be shifted to the "pending" status in the next few days.
Closed condo sales are back up to 151 with no signs of increasing inventory. The story is very similar to the situation with homes. Over 30% of the total inventory has come to market in the last 2 weeks. They come to market and they go under contract.
So, what does that mean to you? If you're a buyer, come to the market ready to play. If you are getting financing, you need a strong down payment and a pre-qualification letter from your lender. You'll also need some luck. Half of the condo sales were cash deals and 30% of the homes sold, sold for cash. Don't have cash? Don't despair. That also means 70% of homes were financed, as were half of the condos.
Pending Sales:
Pending sales represent the properties that are under contract but have not yet closed. Pendings are the pipeline that tell us how many sales are likely to happen in the next couple of months.
Believe it or not, pending sales were up for both homes and condos! And while they are up only slightly, they're still up.
On the mainland, winter time usually brings a slowdown in the real estate market. On Maui, winter is referred to by many Maui Realtors as "buying season". And the real buying season usually starts around mid-January. It will be most interesting to see what happens this coming year.
Inventory:
Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category.
Ok, I'm going to stop whining about inventory. Sales are steady, pending are up slightly, and prices? Just wait until you read the next section.
Home inventory does seem to be steadily declining. That should push prices higher still. And while we're still getting multiple offers on homes, even into the $2,000,000 range, we are also seeing what I've heard some refer to as "buyer fatigue". That is something that happens sometimes when would be buyers make offer after offer without winning. The other thing we're seeing are buyers dropping out of the pursuit of a home because they've been priced out of the market.
Condo inventory fell off sharply in July, but has since remained fairly steady between 127 units and 138 units. That is really amazing when we can see that we are also selling that many or more every single month. We are still getting multiple offers and there are still some pretty good buys on the market. They don't last long, but they are there.
Selling Prices: average and median sold prices
We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because the median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low priced sales.
After declining for 3 straight months, the average selling price of a single family home surged back to almost $2,000,000. The median selling price is only half that, only he ways, at a measly million. That said, there are currently only 28 homes for sale priced at $1,000,000 or less.
The average selling price of condos have also been sort of surging. Last month they hit an all time high of $1,114,452. However, the median price has been up and down, month by month. I still think there are some pretty good buys out there.
Days on Market: avg-sold listings
The days on market (DOM) is the number of days a property has been on the market until close of escrow.
We report the days on market of properties that have sold. That tells us how long it took to actually sell. However, we also track "active" properties, meaning properties that are either for sale or are under contract, but haven't sold yet.
It is striking to me that days on market for active condos is down to 72 days. In November of 2019, the number was almost double at 135 days. That is just another indicator of how quickly the market is moving right now.
Mele Kalikimaka and Hau'oli Makahiki Hou. Here comes 2022!
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Get more information and details
To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com. If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you. As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.
About Aloha Group Maui
Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Beau Dyer R(B), Angie Liu R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Paul Goodman R(B), Jamie Martin R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business. We are in business for pleasure and profit. We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit). Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed. So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.
Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization. Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.
Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz). She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.
Copyright 2021 L. Lee Potts
Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc. While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes. Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.
