Condo Inventory jumps increasing supply 22%. Condo selling prices hit a new all time record high.
Wait, supply is up, demand is up and prices are up. That doesnʻt sound right.
Thanksgiving is over, the whales are arriving and so are visitors. Itʻs still 80 degrees plus during the daytime in Lahaina. We had a big fire earlier this month in the West Maui Mountains. It was reminiscent of the fire we had a few years back. The fire made it all the way down to the highway and just across the street from Lahaina proper. This new fire burned over 2,100 acres and almost burned the "L" out of the hillside.
Weʻve also had high winds and a big north swell. So, your favorite beach may have relocated.
Other than that, itʻs just another day in paradise.
And real estate? Sales are slowly decreasing, inventory is slowing increasing, and selling prices? Well, supply and demand is not necessarily behaving the way it should.
SALES:
As expected, both condo and home sales are down this month. You could see it coming based on the decline in pending sales which is the result of flat home inventory and low condo inventory. But even considering those leading indicators, sales are down a little more than expected.
Home sales dropped from 87 sales in August, to 57 sales in September. Last month we were back up to 63 sales, but it doesn't seem like we are headed back to the 80+ sales level anytime soon. Although listings have remained steady in about the 240-260 range since July, pending sales have continued to decline. Part of the reason for that is the time of year, but interest rates, inflation, and world events all play a role.
Condo sales dropped to just 70 units last month. Thatʻs down from 150 condos sold in both May and June. As we noted last month, pending sales are declining slowly, but steadily. However, we will be coming into Mauiʻs busiest real estate season soon, and I expect the pending and sold numbers to begin increasing. Also, even though we still have less than 3 monthsʻ worth of condos for sale, and itʻs still a sellersʻ market, we did see a 22% increase in the number of condos for sale last month.
INVENTORY:
It is a still a sellersʻ market based on inventory levels and current demand. The number of homes for sale has remained quite consistent for the last 6 months. In June, we had 258 homes for sale and at the end of November, there were 252 homes for sale. If sales continue to slow, even if inventory remains steady, we could reach a balanced market by the 2nd quarter of 2023.
Condo inventory is actually higher than it was a year ago. We began December of 2021 with just 129 condos for sale and started this December with 198 for sale. Thatʻs a big increase, right? The big difference is that 129 condos for sale wasn't enough to last for a full month last year. This year we have enough to last almost, but not quite, 3 months. It is still a solid sellersʻ market for condos.
PENDING SALES:
Pending sales are a "leading indicator" and give us insight into what closed sales will look like in the next month or 2. And from a Realtorʻs point of view, it ainʻt pretty.
Overall pending sales are down about 5%. Pending home sales remained flat at 113 as compared to 112 last month. Pending condo sales were down by 12 units over the prior month, a decline of 6%.
SELLING PRICES: average and median sold prices
There have been some big swings in average selling prices for homes this year. We started the year at $1,572,078, climbed to $2,225,363 and over the last 6 months eased on back down to the $1.3 million range. The lower average selling price is a reflection of slower sales of higher end properties. Think $3 million plus. My sense is that those potential buyers, predominantly cash buyers, are hanging on to their cash and waiting to see what happens with the economy and the stock market.
The median selling price remained stable for the last 3 months in the $1,025,000 range. We started last December with a median selling price of $1.1M. So, there has been some change, but even in the face of interest rates that doubled in that time frame the change was not dramatic.
By the way, the current average asking price for a home on Maui is $3,512,411 and the median is $1,790,000.
Earlier we pointed out that it is still a sellersʻ market and there is still high demand for condos on Maui. Last month both the average and the median selling prices were record highs for Maui. The average selling price came in at $1,356,665. You might notice that is higher than the average selling price for a single family home. Wow!
And just for fun, the current average asking price for a condo is $1,780,000 and the median is $950,000.
Get more information and details
To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com. If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you. As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.
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About Aloha Group Maui
Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Suni Novotny R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Myra Plant R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Courtney Stice, R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), Heather Zidell, R(S), Magdalena Odonnell R(S) and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business. We are in business for pleasure and profit. We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit). Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed. So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.
Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization. Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.
Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back when both Steve’s were there (Jobs and Woz). She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.
Copyright 2022 L. Lee Potts
Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc. While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes. Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.
