Bill 9 Update - Council Vote, Surprises, and What Comes Next
The Maui County Council moved Bill 9 forward at its recent meeting, and the vote took many observers by surprise - not because of the outcome, but because the council proceeded before filling the vacant ninth seat. For a bill with island-wide economic, housing, and legal implications, many expected the council to wait until the full memberships was restored. Instead, the council chose to advance the measure, underscoring both the political urgency surrounding housing and the deep divisions in the community over the future of STRs in apartment-zoned buildings.
In one of the most striking moments of the meeting, Council Chair Alice Lee closed with unusually blunt remarks that captured her discomfort with the legislation. As she put it, "I have to pay the bills," and, even more forcefully, "This is the worst bill I've ever seen." Her comments reflected the tension on the council - members publicly acknowledged flaws in the bill while advancing it under pressure to "do something," even if the "something" is far from fully formed.
Much of the unease centers on the companion Hotel Zone bill, scheduled for its first presentation on December 19. Even under the most favorable scenario, the hotel-zoning legislation (introducing the new H3/HH4 Hotel districts) will require full public testimony, multiple readings, amendments, and separate council votes. Implementation - should it pass - will not be immediate. Realistically, the zoning overhaul could run well into 2026, which is also an election year for council members.
Chair Lee made it clear that she had major reservations about advancing Bill 9 before establishing the hotel zones that are supposed to serve as its structural counterpart. Without those hotel zones in place, existing apartment-zoned STR owners are left in limbo, and Maui's larger tourism-housing balance remains unresolved. The sequencing has become a central criticism: Bill 9 moves forward now, while the "solution" arrives later - maybe.
And that "maybe" matters. With the hotel zone bill stretching into 2026, the political landscape may look very different by the time implementation decisions come up. There is no guarantee that the same council members supporting Bill 9 today will remain in office when the times comes to finalize, fund, or enforce the related zoning changes. The companion bill could become a defining political issue in the next election cycle, influencing both the future of short-term rentals and the future composition of the council itself.
For now, Bill 9 advances with momentum, controversy, and considerable uncertainty - exactly the kind of mix that ensures this conversation is far from over.
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Lahaina Recovery - 100+ Completed Structures & a Harbor Coming Back to Life
This week the county celebrated 100 residential structures completed since the Lahaina and Kula wildfires in 2023. Now, let me be clear, 100 structures isn't nothing. It is a benchmark and it has symbolic value for the community. I also believe that the rate of building will move more quickly as over 500 permits have been approved and many of those are under construction now.
That's clearly progress. But my lament, my melancholy - whatever this feeling is - comes from standing on Front Street looking at homes under construction and vacant lots side by side thinking: 100 completed...about 2,100 to go.
Homes & Structures Completed
According to the County's latest update:
- As of this week, 100 structures have now passed final inspection and are ready for occupancy in wildfire-affected ares.
- 96 are in Lahaina (88 residential and 8 non-residential)
- 4 are in Kula (all residential)
Is that enough? Of course not. But going from "almost nothing rebuilt" to a three-digit number of completed structures is a real benchmark for the community and a hopeful sign for 2026.
Lahaina Harbor & Front Street Update
The long-awaited return of activity to the Lahaina Small Boat Harbor is finally in sight - and while the reopening is limited, it's symbolically powerful. For many of us, just seeing boats back in the harbor and people returning to the waterfront brings a little life back to to a place we still can't pass through without feeling that familiar lump in our throats.
Beginning December 15, 2025, the Lahaina Small Boat Harbor will reopen for limited commercial operations. Loading and unloading will be allowed on a permitted basis, and - because the area still lacks lighting and amenities - all activity will be restricted to daylight hours, 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. This cautious approach prioritizes safety while allowing residents and operations to slowly reconnect with the harbor.
Parking in the area will be structured and guided:
- Dickenson Street near Front Street
- Corner of Prison Street & Front Street
- Corner of Shaw Street & Front Street
Park Maui ambassadors will be on-site to help visitors navigate the new parking rules and find available spaces. Parking will be limited to three hours.
The County is also reopening several adjacent streets that have been closed since the fire, with updated signage and revised parking rules to manage traffic around the harbor.
Several areas remain fully closed, indicated by red hash marks on official maps:
- The Banyan Tree area
- The Lahaina Public Library grounds
- The Kamehameha Schools properties
There is no parking on Front Street, and no business or historic sites in this section are open. Expect limited amenities and ongoing construction activity.
Planting and landscape restoration are scheduled to begin in early December - a small but meaningful step toward re-establishing the look and feel of the waterfront corridor.
Additional Neighborhood Notes:
- Neighborhood and access ways remain open 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.
- Ongoing cleanup, construction, and limited infrastructure continue to affect services such as mail delivery, especially near temporary housing. FEMA and the County are still coordination solutions.
The reopening won't look anything like the Lahaina Harbor we once knew - but it is movement in the right direction. A cautious, careful step. And as the County reminded everyone: if you're going down there, use some common sense.
Tourism on Maui - Fewer Feet in the Sand, but the Wallets are Thicker
Let's talk story about tourism, because whether we like it or not, it's the heartbeat that pumps life into a whole lot of Maui's economy...and into the short-term rental market many of us care about.
Tourism on Maui right now is what I'd call "mixed plate economics." Fewer visitors are showing up, but the folks who do come are spending more - and that's keeping our island business afloat.
Here's what the October 2025 numbers tell us:
- 179,459 visitors came to Maui in October - that's down 1.1% from last year. Not a big drop, but still a drop.
- Visitor spending jumped to about $437 million - roughly 11-12% higher than October 2024.
- Our average daily visitor count was 42,299, down about 7.5% from a year earlier.
For the year through October:
- Visitor arrivals are up 7.6% compared to 2024.
- Visitor spending is up 12.1% over the same period.
So yes - fewer bodies on the beaches, but the ones who are here are opening their wallets a little wider.
What does that mean for us? It's a mixed blessing. Higher per-visitor spending helps local businesses and county tax revenues, but it doesn't fully make up for a softer headcount. For buyers and sellers - especially those looking at short-term rental properties - tourism is always the backdrop. Visitor demand influences occupancy, nightly rates, and ultimately what an investor is willing to pay for a condo.
And here's the part that has me raising an eyebrow: October's small dip could just be random turbulence...or it could be the first ripple of a bigger trend. We really need a solid winter season to steady the ship.
What About Bill 9's Shadow?
Some long-time Maui visitors are hesitating to book because they're unsure whether their favorite condo will still exist as a rental once the Bill 9 phase-out gets rolling. The messaging from the County has been...not crystal clear.
Confusion > hesitation > fewer bookings.
A Look Back for Context
Fifteen months after the August 2023 fires, November 2024 actually showed improvement:
- 197,622 visitors, up 21.6% from November 2023
- Still below 2019 levels by almost 15%, but trending the right way
- Visitor spending hit $435.7 million, up more than 15% from both 2024 and 2019
- Average daily census: 51,901 visitors
But zoom out to the first 11 months of 2024, and visitation was still down compared to 2023 and dramatically below 2019. Spending was softer year-over-year too, though still slightly above 2019.
Hotels vs. Condos
Hotels continue to outperform condo rental on occupancy - not dramatically, but consistently. And let's be honest: the hotel industry is a vocal supporter of Bill 9. Condos and condo-tels are their competition, and they know ti.
For condo owners - and would-be owners - the message is clear: demand is still here, but it's cautious , price-sensitive, and heavily influenced by our political climate.
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Condo Market Update
Condo sales dropped to just 49 in November. After seeing sales in the 60s for a few months in a row, 49. is disappointing - but November is typically one of the slowest months of the year. The number of sales through 11 months of 2025 is down 22.2% over last year.
Inventory, which has been dropping consistently since hitting 900 back in April, jumped almost to that April number again, hitting 890 condos for sale. That, combined with lower sales, gives us almost 18 months of inventory.
Pending Sales
And, not to be left out, pending sales went the wrong way as well, dropping to 86 condos under contract. Some of those will close and be counted as sales in December, but many will carry over into January.
If anything can help improve condo sales, pricing should do the trick. Year to date, the median selling price is off 22%. It hit $595,000, dropping below $600,000 for the first times since February 2021, in the early COVID recovery.
The median asking price for a condo stayed below $800K, perhaps indicating that sellers are getting in touch with reality. But the average asking rose back above $1.3 million.
Buena suerte, y'all.
Single-Family Home Market Update
The single-family home segment, which has been nice and boring, decided to make some waves as well. Home sales dropped below 50 for the first time since March, dropping 22.2% from just the previous month. We have a lot of 22s in this report. Hmmm.
Inventory, which as declined three months in a row, reversed direction and jumped up to 450 homes for sale. That gives us 9 months of inventory, putting buyers firmly in charge in the single-family space. The last time we had 450 or more for sale was, you guessed it, back at the beginning of COVID, in February 2020.
Pending sales held steady and even rose a smidge over last month. However, we've been on a downward trend for several months now.
Selling prices continued their downward slide with the median home price dropping below $1.2M. That's telling after the median home price hung out in the $1.3M range for the better part of two years.
The average selling price also slid, hitting $1.335M. It's been a while since we've seen those numbers as well.
With that, the median asking price remains just a touch under $1.7M at $1.695M and the average remains over $3M at $3.158M.
Seasonal Perspective
November is one of our slower times of the year. It's in that awkward in-between stage after the summer buying season and before the winter buying season. This year, we're hoping the winter buying season arrives as expected.
Final Thoughts - And a Few Takeaways
As we wrap up this month's report, here's what I want to leave you with:
Even if Bill 9 passes exactly as written - no amendments, no delays, no surprises - it does not go into effect for 3 to 5 years. That means:
- Your favorite condo is still available.
- Maui's communities still welcome you.
- And we want you to come, enjoy the Aloha, and support the local economy that so many families depend on.
Please don't let the headlines scare you away. The uncertainty is real - but so is the timeline, and that timeline gives everyone breathing room.
Now, for those of you who have ever dreamed of owning a condo on Maui - and I know many of you have - I'll say this plainly:
We are in a buyer's market.
And not just any buyer's market...
This may be the best time to buy in over 15 years.
Prices have corrected sharply. Inventory is high. Sellers are negotiating. And opportunities that were completely out of reach two or three years ago are suddenly within striking distance.
If you've been waiting for the right moment, this winter might be the window you look back on and say, That was it.
Whether you're planning a trip, watching the market, or thinking about taking the leap into Maui ownership, Barbara and I are here to help you navigate it - with straight talk, real numbers, and a whole lot of aloha.
Until next month-
Aloha, y'all.
