March 2017 Sales Statistics
Maui real estate sales are generally up
Selling prices continue to climb in 2017
Overall both home and condo sales are up significantly through the first quarter of the year compared the same quarter last year. Total dollar volume for homes is up 27% and condos are up 26%. However, the number of homes sold has dropped 5% below last year. So, clearly the increased dollar volume means that homes are selling for more.
Condo sales, on the other hand, are up 17% in Q1 compared to the same quarter last year. The median selling price has also surged, up 12% over last year.
Although the number of homes sold in Q1 are down, the trend in the quarter was consistent with previous years. There were relatively few sales in January and February, 66 and 63, followed by a surge in closings, 101 in March.
The biggest issue for buyers going forward will be inventory. There are currently only 549 active single family homes listed for sale on Maui. Less than 30% of them are priced at or below the median selling price in March of $769,000. There is less than 3 months of inventory for homes at that price point.
For buyers of more substantial means the market isn’t a whole lot better. There is less than 5 months of inventory for homes priced between $780,000 and $1,500,000. So, it is a very good market for sellers with homes in $1.5 million and below range.
However, once the price tops $1.5 million, it’s a whole new market. For homes in the $1,500,000 to $2,000,000 range there are enough houses for sale to last for over 2 years. So, if you are shopping at the higher end of the price range you can enjoy a buyers’ market.
The chart below clearly shows the rising trend for the median home price over the last 5 years. The median price in March was $769,000. You have to go all the way back to 2006 to find a higher number, $780,000 in July of that year. The median selling price also hit $780,000 in May of 2005. And, yes, $780,000 was the top of the market for Maui.
Condo sales, up 5% in Q1, seem to be on the rise averaging over 100 sales per month. This looks like the strongest first 3 months since 2006, when we sold 390 condos in the first quarter, an average of 130 per month.
The median price for March was $390,000. That’s a bit lower than the overall median for the first quarter of $425,000. For sellers that price point is very hot, with just over 2 months of inventory. In fact, the overall market is fairly balanced, slightly favoring sellers, up to the $750,000 price point.
Once the price pops over $750,000 there is a complete turnaround. We currently have enough $750,000 + inventory to last over 12 months, and the higher the price goes, the more it becomes a buyers’ market.
What’s hot, what’s not in single family homes
What’s Hot – Single Family Homes - For single family homes the 3 areas with the biggest percentage increases in sales units for the first quarter of 2016 compared to 2017 were:
1. Wailea + 1,000%
2. Napili/Kahana/Honokowai + 175%
3. Ka’anapali + 75%
Those are pretty spectacular percentages, but, before anybody gets too excited, we need to look at the actual numbers.
In the first quarter of 2016 there was only 1 home sold in Wailea. This year they are up to 11, so that skews the percentage. The average selling price in the area is $5.5 million.
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai has become the “go-to” place on Maui’s West Side if you want, and can afford, something “newer” and nicer without getting into what has been considered the luxury market. However, there were only 4 sales in that district last year compared to 11 this year.
I have to say, given the activity in the district, I’m a bit surprised to see that the average selling price, $860,909, and the median, $996,950, are both down compared to 2016.
I’m also surprised to see that number of sales in Ka’anapali are up. However, the average selling price, $1,461,750 is down 47% and the median is off by 26% .
So, for both Napili/Kahana/Honokowai and Ka’anapali the recipe appears to be the same. Prices come down and sales increase.
What’s Not Hot – Single Family Homes - For single family homes the 3 areas with the biggest percentage decreases in sales units for the first quarter of 2016 compared to 2017 were:
1. Kapalua -80%
2. Maui Meadows - 60%
3. Sprecklesville/Paia - 29%
The leader in this somewhat dubious category is Kapalua. During the first quarter of this year there was just a single sale. And to make things a bit more dubious the house that sold was never listed in the MLS. There are currently 35 active listings in the Maui MLS.
Maui Meadows, which is on the south side sort of between Kihei and Wailea, dropped from 10 sales in 2016 to only 4 this year. However, a deeper look reveals that there are currently 11 in the area under contract. So, expect to see a turnaround there in Q1.
Sprecklesville/Paia was off 29%, but that is only 2 homes fewer than last year.
The big drivers of home sales on Maui, Central District and Kihei were both down in sales units. Central was off by 11% and Kihei was down 8%. Prices were up in both areas.
Since these are some of the more affordable areas on Maui, and we seeing both prices and interest rates rising, it is likely to get even more challenging for the average family to buy their own home.
What’s hot, what’s not in condominiums
The hot condo districts – The 3 with the biggest percentage gains over 2016 were:
1. Wailea/Makena + 88%
2. Maalaea + 69%
3. Kihei + 32%
An 88% increase for Wailea is amazing. Not only did the number of sales jump from 26 to 49, the average selling price jumped 24% to just under $1.7 million. The median selling price also increased by 23%.
The increase in sales in Maalaea is not all that surprising. While it is famous (infamous some might say) for its windiness, people who own and visit the condo complexes know that once you are inside, on your lanai or down by the pool near the ocean, you are protected from the wind. If you want to be oceanfront, Maalaea has some good values. However, prices are up on average 36%. And, as an added bonus, since we are no longer burning sugar cane, Maalaea is no longer getting black snow.
Kihei’s increase in sales is also amazing to me. In what is perennially Maui’s largest condo market, a 32% increase in the number of sales is a big reason why Maui’s condo market is so strong and up overall. The main reason for that kind of increase is value. With a median selling price still below $400,000 and an average selling price below $475,000, it’s a strong value for those who want to buy or invest in a resort area.
What’s not so hot – The 3 districts with the largest declines in sales were all on Maui’s west side. Ouch! That’s our backyard. They were:
1. Ka’anapali - 36%
2. Lahaina - 11%
3. Napili/Kahana/Honokowai - 2%
So, why are things so down on the west side? The Ka’anapali area’s decline can be summed up with the name of a single complex, Honua Kai. In the first quarter of 2016 there were 16 sales at the complex, this year, only 4. Since Ka’anapali is only down by 9 sales, things aren’t as glum as they might first appear.
Lahaina’s drop is for similar reasons to Ka’anapali. In 2016 there was still new inventory at Opukea. Since homes on the West Side are so expensive, Opukea, which does not allow short term rentals, was a nice alternative. Even though Lahaina sales were off by 11%, that represents only 3 sales. There were 13 at Opukea last year.
The fact that the 3rd largest decline in sales was Napili/Kahana/Honokowai and a measly 2%, which is not even statistically significant, says something for the strength of the Maui condo market. However, the thing that is noteworthy about the district and its performance is that the average selling price fell 14% to only $380,180 and the median fell 21% to $345,000. That is the lowest of any of Maui’s major districts. How much of that drop is a result of erosion issues along the Kahana coastline? That’s probably a subject for a whole separate article.
Subscribe to the Maui Real Estate Advisor by sending a request to info@alohagroupmaui.com
Copyright 2017 L. Lee Potts
Statistical information in this newsletter is based on actual sales information reported to the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc. While this information is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and not intended as advice for investment or any other purposes. Real estate is considered to be highly volatile, and purchasers and sellers of real estate should always seek expert outside advice before investing.
L. Lee and Barbara S. Potts are The Aloha Potts Team. They, and the other Agents of Aloha, are collectively known as Aloha Group Maui. Aloha Group Maui is a part of KW Island Living, the Keller Williams Maui franchise. Learn more about Maui Real Estate in our Maui Real Estate 101 resources section.
