Aloha, friends!
Here's what's happening in the Maui real estate market as we head into fall. From Bill 9 updates to signs of life in the condo market, and a steady home sector that's holding its ground - here's the latest from the island.
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Bill 9 and Local Updates
Bill 9 is scheduled for its first readig before the full County Council in mid-October - so stay tuned.
Tourism has been slowly improving. We had a surprisingly good August and September, especially in Kaanapali. But most property managers are forecasting a slower October and early November.
The County also held another community workshop for the Lahaina Commercial Corridor, including discussions on the future of Front Street.
It looks like we'll still have a Front Street - and it'll still be a two-way street. However, when it comes to commerce, all commercial activity will likely be forced to the mauka side. There's no final decision yet, but we can read the tea leaves. More to come in a future podcast episode.
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The Real Estate Numbers
So how's the market itself? Let's do the numbers.
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Condominiums
Property sales continue to lag, but there may be a hint of light ahead.
At our Kaanapali Shores office, we've seen more walk-ins and online inquiries, suggesting an uptick in buyer activity. Many other brokers have noticed the same thing - though it hasn't shown up in the official sales number yet.
Only 45 condos sold in September - the fewest in any month since the Great Recession.
Another worrying indicator: Maui now has nearly 19 months of condo inventory. That means if no new listings came to market, at the current sales pace we'd have enough supply to last well into 2027.
But there is some good news.
Inventory is slowly slipping down. Back in April, Maui had 900 condo for sale. Since then, inventory has declined every month - five straight months of decreases.
Pending sales are also improving. After bottoming out at 77 in August, the number of condos under contract climbed to 87 by the end of September - the highest in five months.
Median condo prices remain at $650,000, matching August and marking the lowest level since August 2021 - back when tourism was still recovering from COVID.
And, just in case you've blocked that from your memory - that was just before the market skyrocketed.
Now, prices seem to have circled back, with average condo prices landing in the mid-$900,000s for the second time in the last year.
If you've been thinking about buying a condo on Maui, this might be your moment.
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Single-Family Homes
The single-family home market? In a word - boring.
And in real estate, boring is often a good thing. Slow, steady growth keeps the market healthy.
Home sales dipped slightly, but pending sales increased, and inventory held steady.
There were 56 homes sold in September - down from the previous month but right in line with the 12-month average.
Inventory stood at 438 homes, about 7.8 months of supply. That typically signals a mild buyers' market, but the numbers tell a more complex story.
The median selling price held steady around $1.3 million, closing the month at $1,292,500. The average price came in at $1.763 million - down a little from August but up from two months ago.
So, if inventory is high, why aren't prices falling? Because the Maui market remains deeply unbalanced.
Half of all homes sold last month for under $1.3 million and half went for over.
But only 27% of homes currently listed under $1.3 million. The remaining 73% are above that price point.
In short - demand is strong in the lower price ranges, but most available homes are priced higher.
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What to Watch Next
For buyers, this could be a rare window of opportunity. Prices in some areas have eaed back to 2021 levels, and inventory is tightening. If you've been waiting for the right tie to jump back in, now's a good moment to look closely.
For sellers, realistic pricing is key. Well-priced homes are still moving, while overpriced listing are sitting longer.
As we head into the end of the year, keep an eye on three things:
- Tourism Numbers - visitor flow drives a large part of our market
- Interest Rates - still influencing buyer decisions
- Buyer activity - whether the recent uptick turns into real sales momentum
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Final Thoughts
Maui's Market is resilient - and so are we. We've been through a lot, but the reasons people love this island haven't changed.
The numbers show what many of us feel: cautious buyers, longer inventory times, and a market leaning toward affordability pressures. But Maui is still Maui - one of the most desirable places on earth to live, visit, and invest.
Thanks for taking the time to read The Maui Real Estate Advisor. If you've got a question, comment or theory - drop me a line at lee@alohapotts.com. I read every one.
And hey - if you liked this report, leave us a comment and forward to a friend considering Maui real estate.
If you or someone you know is considering buying, selling, or just keeping tabs on the Maui market, our team of seasoned, well-trained agents is ready to help.
From the greatest island on earth, I'm Lahaina Lee - saying ALOOOHA.
Get more information and details
To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.AlohaGroupMaui.com. If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you. As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.
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About Aloha Group Maui
Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR® R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals; Cheri Miller R(S), Anthony Freda R(S), Kathy Becklin, R(B), Becky Sparling, R(S), and Tony Brown R(B). We are businesspeople, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business. We are in business for pleasure and profit. We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own in Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit). Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed. So if you are buying property in Maui, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team.
Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization. Lee and Barbara are both licensed under
Keller Williams Realty Maui.
