Quick Update:

Aloha, Friends: 2020 is officially in the rear view mirror, but it did not go quietly. The resort we live in the middle of not-usually-windy Lahaina had the roof literally blown off of 2 buildings on the day after Christmas. Large sheets of corrugated steel sailed off the buildings and into the parking lots. Thankfully, no one was injured, but some cars definitely had damage. We lost power for several hours, which is not such a big deal.

The scariest thing during this freak wind storm was a fire that started in Olowalu, south of Lahaina. If you're not familiar with Olowalu, that's where Leoda's Pie Shop is located. After the huge fire just 2 years ago when Hurricane Lane came through, many of us were nervous that another fire, pushed by near hurricane force winds would threaten the nearby West Maui neighborhoods and possibly downtown Lahaina.

According to the Maui News over 500 acres were burned, residents were evacuated, and the highway was closed. Some structures were singed and a community hall/church was destroyed. 

On the less dramatic side, we went to Front Street to watch the final sunset of 2020. Front Street itself was busy, but not crowded. People were wearing masks for the most part, but not everyone was. As the sun set, there were bagpipes being played at Fleetwood's across the street from our view point. It was a nice finish to 2020.

And what's happening in real estate? Let's look at the numbers.

Sales:

Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere form 2 t0 8 weeks before closing.

December's sales numbers are simply stunning. There have been over 100 homes sold in 3 of the last 4 months. Given that there are only 278 homes even for sale on the whole island, to squeeze out 101 sales at a median price of $865,000 is hard to imagine. Of the homes currently for sale, only 78 are priced under $1M. We clearly have a shortage of "affordable" housing. There are builders wiling to build, but Maui County Council isn't going to make that easy or perhaps even doable.

Maui's condos sales were doubly stunning. As of January 1, there were 167 sales reported. That number usually goes up a bit due to late reporting. That is 44 more sales, or 26% higher than December 2019. And the median selling price? That's up as well. Many consumers and Realtors, including this broker, expected to see condo sales plunge in 2020, and they did in the spring, but condo sales are back, big time. 

Pending Sales:

Pending sales represent properties that are under contract but have not yet closed. Pendings are the pipeline that tell us how many sales are likely to happen in the next couple of months.

Total pending sales are up to 530. That is up 6% from December of 2019. Only January and February of 2020 had more pending sales. Our pendings started to crash in March, hit bottom in April and have risen ever since.

Pending home sales at 221 is nothing short of amazing given the current inventory of homes for sale. The median asking price for homes under contract is $842,000. There are only 50 active listings on the market at that price or under. What does that tell us about future sales?

The 221 condos sales pending is 19% higher than the pendings in the pre-COVID December of 2019. Pendings fell to just 142 in April, but by June had topped 200 again. Pending sales for the last 4 months have been steadily higher than the last 4 months of 2019.

Inventory:

Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category.

So, what's the downside to all this great sales activity? Well, it's the supply side of supply and demand. We are running out of supply.

When we are selling over 100 homes per month and there are only 278 for sale on all of Maui, Lanai and Molokai, we would completely run out of homes for sale in 3 months if we continue to sell at this rate and no other homes come to market.

The lack of inventory, the demand side of supply and demand, keeps driving prices up. As mentioned earlier, there were only 50 homes priced at or below the median selling price. Of the home actively for sale, homes in the inventory, the median asking price is...are you ready? $2,100,000. I don't see how sales can continue at the current pace.

Condo inventory is up 40%, 195 units, over December of 2019. That sounds likes a lot, and it is. However, at the current sales pace, we could deplete that inventory in just 4 months.

The National Association of Realtors define a "balanced" market to be 6 months of inventory. That means if there is less than 6 months of inventory, it is a sellers' market.

Selling Prices: Average and median sold prices

We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because the median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low-priced sales.

The median selling price for homes has topped $800,000 every month of the last quarter of 2020. It topped $800K only 2 times in the last 2 years. The average selling price soared to over $1,650,000. That sounds like a record to me.

The median condo selling price also took a big jump in December. At $629,000, it was up 19% over November and up 22% over December of 2019. However, that looks like a spike because median prices have been consistently in the $500,000's for the last 6 months. In the last 6 months of 2019, median prices ranged from the high $400,000's to mid $500,000's, so prices do appear to be up a bit for 2020.

Days on Market:

The days on market (DOM) is the number of days a property has been on the market until close of escrow. 

The average days on market for homes is still pretty low at 130. SO, there's not much new there.

Condo's DOM topped 200 days. One reason for that higher number might be that lenders are backed up due to the number of people refinancing to take advantage of today's low interest rates. You can't close, and that DOM ticker keeps on running until the buyer can get their loan funded and close.

Thanks for reading. We're really looking forward to a healthy 2021 and getting folks back on Maui. Be well, stay safe and we'd love to hear from you anytime.

____________________________________

Get more information and details

To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.alohagroupmaui.com. If you can't find what you're looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com and we'll do our best to get an answer for you. As we get more requests for information, we'll add new sections to our website, newsletter or both.

About Aloha Group Maui

Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR R(B), and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals: Angie Liu R(S), Beau Dyer R(B), Cheri Miller R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Paul Goodman R(B), Suni Novotny R(S), Myra Plant R(S), and Tony Brown R(B). We are business people, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business. We are in business for pleasure and profit. We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own on Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit). Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed. So fi you are buying property on Maui, it is a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team. 

Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization. Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.

Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back with both Steve's were there (Job and Woz). She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.

Lee, Barbara and the team are licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.

Extremely rare slice of paradise right on Napili Beach in the middle of Napili Bay at the beautiful Hale Napili.

This boutique condominium complex has the charm of old Hawaii - the way Maui used to be, without the crowds, without the hurry. There is a beautiful new grass lawn in front of the beach at the property. This boutique resort is intimate and low density with only 18 units on site. You'll feel like you are in your secret spot.

From your comfortably appointed studio you have a view of the lush green palms out your window and on your lanai. From the lanai you have a lovely ocean view. Hale Napili went through a major upgrade/renovation in the recent past. Unit 17's kitchen and bathroom were completely remodeled, with new appliances, tile floors, granite countertops, upgraded cabinetry and a large step-in double shower tiled area. Unit 17 also has new carpet and new sliding door treatments (vertical blinds/shades).

Other recent upgrades include the installation of air conditioning system in each unit, and a keyless entry system (added in 2019) with a keyless security system at the entry gates and the gate to the ocean. The art, which is all new, includes photographs printed on aluminum; framed Hawaiian bird prints, a framed limited edition print by Kathleen Alexander, and a framed photograph of a whale.

With every visit it will feel like you are coming home. You can relax and casually watch the sunsets, the whales, the turtles and the people at play in the surf and on the sand of Maui's favorite bay.

Hale Napili is close to the Kapalua resort area that has oceanfront golf courses, hiking trails, ziplining and world class beaches. Just a few miles South is Kaanapali Beach and the mile long white sandy beach. Whaler's Village is along the Kaanapali boardwalk and has upscale shopping, and a variety of places to eat. A few miles further is Lahaina Town with Front Street and there you can chose from a wide range of fantastic restaurants, surf stores and other various shopping, all while enjoying a spectacular view of the ocean.

If you want more details about one of the sweetest spots on Maui, contact your Realtor for details today.

Aloha, Friends: I'm writing this on December 5, 2020. As we continue to be COVID cautious here on Maui, I am happy to report that the signs of life and renewed commerce on Maui are abundant. Last night, we walked Front Street as we do frequently on "Art Night" when all of the galleries are open. There were people, all wearing masks, and traffic. It had a faintly familiar ring to it.

Unfortunately, some of our old favorites like Maui Built and a few notable restaurants are gone forever. However, there are some new businesses, including a new oceanfront gallery where Koa used to be, and Tommy Bahama Marlin Bar. This unique dining and apparel space in the Lahaina Outlets Center in the Old Rock location, opens December 14.

We started the morning of December 5 at Airport Beach. The beach is busier than it was a month ago, but there was still plenty of space for a couple of beach chairs and a cooler. The water was aquarium clear and I've not seen such an abundance of fish in forever it seems. By the way, the air temp is in the mid-80's and the water is still warm. Also, we saw some whale breaches from afar.

And what's happening in real estate? Let's take a look.

Sales:

Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. These properties likely went under contract anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks before closing. At mid-price and below it's sellers' market for single family homes on Maui, as it is across most of the country. With the current inventory for homes priced at or below the median selling price, we have 1.5 months of inventory.

There were 27 sales of homes priced between $1M and $2M. With the current inventory of only 68 homes in that price range, just over 2 months of inventory, buyers in that price range also face a sellers' market.

It's not until buyers looking for homes priced over $2M that we start to see an even market and a little negotiating room, but even at those lofty price points we are seeing competition for well-priced properties.

For condos the story is different, but only a little different. When the COVID quarantines began in March, sales slowed, and when it became apparent that condo-tel units wouldn't be providing any meaningful income to owners for a while, sales came to a screeching halt.

However, condo sales are back. With 130 sales in November there were only 2 months in all of 2020 with a higher number of sales. One of those months was February, as you would expect, with 131 sales.

What about prices you ask? Keep reading.

Pending Sales:

Pending sales represent properties that are under contract but have not yet closed. Pendings are the pipeline that tell us how many sales are likely to happen in the next couple of months.

Pending home sales started the year in the 200's, dropped off for just 3 months, March through May, and have remained in the 200 plus range ever since. Those sales have never slowed, prices have continued to rise, and the only reason there aren't even more sales is there just aren't enough of them on the market.

There is no COVID discount.

New contracts on condos climbed to 235. That compares to 248 last November. Pending condo sales have been climbing since June, but really started to pick up steam in September. This is very good sign for sellers going into our traditionally strong winter selling season. 

Inventory:

Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category.

We've already commented on the extraordinary low supply of homes for sale on Maui. To borrow a line from Johnny Carson, "how low is it?" Sorry, no funny punch line here, just a comparison. In November of 2019, we had 438 homes on the market, that was still very low, and there were only 71 sales that month. Now we have over 100 fewer homes for sale and homes are selling at a higher rate. Inventory dropped below 400 in June and has declined consistently ever since.

Condos are, again, a different story. Inventory had a significant increase in March and continued to rise through August. It really looked like the market was going to shift into a real buyer's market. But new inventory slowed down. It dropped a bit in October and a bit more in November. At the current rate of condo sales, we are back below 6 months of supply. So, it's not a buyer's market and it's not a seller's market based on the numbers. If COVID shuts the visitor market off again, things could change, but that isn't the case as of today.

Selling Prices: Average and median sold prices

We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because the median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low-priced sales.

Average selling prices for Maui homes climbed back over $1.2M in October and climbed even higher in November. At $1.2 plus, the market is still very competitive for buyers, especially in West Maui.

The median selling price for homes is still above the new conforming loan rates, it is clearly a seller's market. Buyers have to be well represented and have a strategy for buying. You need a game plan before you start, just sayin'.

There is no COIVD discount.

Average condo prices first topped the $900,000 mark in August. Although they did dip in September, they rose over $900K again in October and $887,116, selling prices are still pretty healthy.

At $512,040 it might appear that the median condo price is dropping a bit. However, that needs some context. The jump we saw in August was aided by closing in 2 developments, Luana Gardens at Honua Kai and Kahoma Village in Lahaina. Additionally, the median closing price in November of 2019 was $499,000.

Days on Market: (avg-sold listings)

The days on market (DOM) is the number of days a property has been on the market until close of escrow.

The DOM for homes is down to 111 days. That is the lowest I ever remember seeing. That jives with everything else in this report.

The DOM at 166 for condos is not unusually high or even unusual. In November of 2019 the DOM was 186.

So, despite COVID, politics, unemployment, shutdowns, quarantines and, perhaps the real economy, real estate on Maui appears to be somewhat "normal". What else can we say but that about 2020?

Stay safe, stay healthy and live Aloha.

____________________________________

Get more information and details

To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.alohagroupmaui.com. If you can't find what you're looking for there, send us an email to lee@alohapotts.com and we'll do our best to get an answer for you. As we get more requests for information, we'll add new sections to our website, newsletter or both.

About Aloha Group Maui

Aloha Group Maui was founded by L. Lee Potts, MBA, REALTOR R(B), and Barbara S. Potts, MBA, REALTOR R(B) and former California CPA. Our team consists of talented professionals: Angie Liu R(S), Beau Dyer R(B), Cheri Miller R(S), Keri Nicholson R(S), Paul Goodman R(B), Suni Novotny R(S), Myra Plant R(S), and Tony Brown R(B). We are business people, and we treat our clients with the same care and service attitude that we would like to receive when we do business. We are in business for pleasure and profit. We expect that most of our clients will enjoy the property they own on Maui (pleasure), and it would be nice for everyone if your property performs well for you (profit). Real estate can be highly speculative, and profits are never guaranteed. So fi you are buying property on Maui, it is a good idea to surround yourself with a professional team. 

Lee Potts is the former President of an international software company and former Marketing VP of a publicly traded franchise organization. Lee and Barbara are both licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.

Barbara Potts was a CPA with Ernst and Young before joining Apple Computer back with both Steve's were there (Job and Woz). She was also Director of Strategic Marketing for Grass Valley Group, a division of Tektronix, and a business broker in California.

Lee, Barbara and the team are licensed under Keller Williams Realty Maui.