October 2017
Unofficial Sales Statistics

The official month end real estate sales statistics for October are published by the Realtors Association of Maui around mid-month. The numbers in this report were pulled from the Maui MLS on November 1, 2017. These numbers will vary slightly from the official figures due to factors such as late reporting.

SALES

Homes sales soared to over 100 units in October and the number of homes under contract, pendings, is declining, but still indicates strong closings for the next couple of months. So, we should see strong sales through the end of the year and heading into “high” season.

Condo sales reached 132 units which is the highest level in the last 6 months. Sales normally slow down through January, however, the number of units under contract is strong, so we may not see a slow down this year.

 

PENDING SALES

Pending sales represent properties that are under contract, but have not closed yet. They are an indicator of future sales. Pending home sales fell to the lowest number in 6 months and are well below the high of 272 back in May. Condos sales, on the other hand, hit a 6 month high in October. However, about 1/3 of those are in new developments. That clouds the market trend because of the way our MLS reports them.

 

INVENTORY

Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category. The number of homes for sale hit a 6 month low. So, even with sales levels fairly high, the decline in pending sales followed by the declining inventory gives us a clear warning of a slowdown in the single family home market due to lack of inventory. That is especially true in the more affordable segment of the market. Half of the sales were closed at $667,000 or less, but only about 20% of current inventory is at that price point.

Condo inventory continues to decline as well. It has plunged from 831 units for sale in February to only 618 today. That is a drop of over 25%. So, we can look for a slowdown in condo sales in 2018 as well.

 

AVERAGE AND MEDIAN SOLD PRICES

The average selling price for a home on Maui has not been over the $1M mark since July. The median has remained under $700,000 for 2 months in a row now. So, people are finding homes to buy in the lower price ranges, which is good news for them. This also indicates a slower market in the upper price ranges; the one area where we have glut of inventory.

The average condo prices have been all over the place in the last 6 months. They jumped to over $800,000 in July, dropped to about $600,000 and this month tried to get back to $800,000 again, but fell short. Of course, having 6 condo sales of $3,000,000 or more helps drive up the average. In fact there were more condos than homes that sold at $3,000,000+ mark.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

The days on market is the number of days from the time a listing goes live in the MLS until it closes and is recorded. It is interesting, but is not a good indicator of how long it really takes to sell a particular type of property. That’s because it is an average of all homes from small starter homes that sell quickly to multi-million dollar luxury homes that may take years to sell. The same is true for condos where the type of unit, location, price and buyer motivation may result in a quick sale or the condo may sit on the market waiting for the market to catch up.

 

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