November 2018

Sales Statistics

The official month end real estate sales statistics for November are published by the Realtors Association of Maui around mid-month. The numbers in this report were pulled from the Maui MLS on December 1, 2018. These numbers will vary slightly from the official figures due to factors such as late reporting. 

Sales declined in the month of November to the lowest number in 2018. A fall off in sales during autumn in Maui is expected just as it is on the mainland. The reason is that the summer is over, people are getting settled in for the new school year, they start getting ready for the holidays and, on Maui, we have fewer visitors, which affects both homes and condos.

November condo sales were also down, as expected. However, 120 units is still a healthy number of sales, and it is only 8 condos less than the same month last year.

I don’t normally comment on land sales, but seeing just 5 lots sell in a month is the lowest I ever remember.

Pending sales, along with other key statistics, are detailed below. 

Pending sales represent properties that are under contract but have not closed yet. They are a key indicator of future sales.

Pendings dropped below 500 units in August and have stayed below 500 since then. We are down 201 units since March of this year. The decline is more pronounced for homes than for condos. Total pendings have declined 29% in just the last 8 months. 

Inventory tells us how many units are available for sale in each category. Inventory for homes increased slightly month over month but is down over 12% compared to the same month last year.

Condo inventory decreased 5% for the month and is down over 20% compared to last year. That is a big change. In January there were 647 units on the market and 652 in February. So with condos it seems like it is still a sellers’ market, while home inventory is now, from a market wide perspective, more balanced.

However, of the 492 homes for sale only 112 are priced at or below the median selling price point, meaning that we still have a sellers’ market at that lower end of the price range. 

We look at Average and Median prices in all categories. A lot of people like to know the average price; however, we tend to use median for most of our analysis, because median is less likely to be skewed by outliers of a few very high priced or very low priced sales.

You can see the variance of the average selling prices for homes, which bounced from a high of over $1.1M down to $878,147 and back up to $1.1M + again. The median price also had its ups and downs, but the trend line, if you can draw one, is smoother. I don’t see a clear indication that home prices are declining yet.

Condo prices seem to be showing the effects of the declining inventory noted above. Before June of this year median selling prices were in the $400’s, and the price rose to $515K. After a little bit of a dip in the fall the November median hit $527,825, the highest this year.

The days on market is the number of days a property has been on the market until close of escrow. That number seems pretty stable. Normal financed sales take 45-60+ days, so on average homes and condos are on the market up to 100 days before they go into escrow.

 

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